Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 22). Cremonese had 3 days of rest, Juventus 3.1 and had to travel 183 km.
Away travel183 kmRest days3 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Cremonese19%
Draw25%
Juventus56%
Cremonese19%
Draw24%
Juventus58%
Cremonese18%
Draw25%
Juventus57%
Cremonese14%
Draw22%
Juventus63%
Cremonese19%
Draw24%
Juventus57%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 66
Team strength
Cremonese
Juventus
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
16
AttackIn forecast
57
30
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseJuventus
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
7.11
ShotsContext
16.22
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
45%
On target shareContext
34%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
55%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.57
16.00
Shots allowedContext
11.33
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.67
BlocksContext
2.89
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
80%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
349
PassesContext
477
269
Accurate passesContext
412
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.44
FoulsContext
12.56
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.60
ShotsContext
15.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
43%
On target shareContext
35%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
57%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.50
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.50
BlocksContext
4.10
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
80%
Save rateContext
61%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
354
PassesContext
460
275
Accurate passesContext
397
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.80
FoulsContext
13.50
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km235 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Juventus
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel183 km1,324 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 183 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 235 km | 1,324 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
22R. Floriani Mussolini
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
8T. Koopmeiners
4F. Gatti
15P. Kalulu
18F. Kostić
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
27A. Cambiaso
20I. Openda
22W. McKennie
9D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Juventus-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Juventus · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Inter | L 1–4 A | W 4–3 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game | 15 of 24 · 1.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cremonese wins0 draws2 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 14 May 2023Juventus2–0Cremonese
- 4 Jan 2023Cremonese0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 22% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Cremonese | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 22% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 10.13 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.44 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cremonese | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.55 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.96
Red cards0.24league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 26.0
Penalties0.18league 0.29
Home wins42%league 38%
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 May 23A · Juventus0–20
Juventus13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W31 Aug 25A · Genoa1–02
- L23 Apr 25A · Parma0–13
- L25 Jan 25A · Napoli1–22
- D23 Nov 24A · AC Milan0–02
- W5 Nov 23A · Fiorentina1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese9 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Juventus9 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
