Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 24). Cremonese had 7.9 days of rest, Napoli 14 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days7.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese18%
Draw24%
Napoli58%
Cremonese18%
Draw23%
Napoli59%
Cremonese18%
Draw24%
Napoli58%
Cremonese14%
Draw22%
Napoli65%
Cremonese18%
Draw23%
Napoli59%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 94
Team strength
Cremonese
Napoli
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
16
AttackIn forecast
61
30
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseNapoli
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.87
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
69%
Scored inContext
73%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.38
ShotsContext
12.33
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.07
39%
On target shareContext
38%
5.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
57%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.31
Shots allowedContext
10.93
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
4.40
BlocksContext
3.21
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.08
79%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
371
PassesContext
510
290
Accurate passesContext
437
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.63
FoulsContext
12.27
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
36%
On target shareContext
36%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
57%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.11
BlocksContext
3.44
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
80%
Save rateContext
83%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
375
PassesContext
498
289
Accurate passesContext
422
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.20
FoulsContext
13.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel588 km1,172 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 825 km | 1,172 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
32M. Payero
33A. Grassi
7A. Zerbin
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
99A. Sanabria
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
5Juan Jesus
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
37L. Spinazzola
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
21M. Politano
20E. Elmas
7David Neres
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Napoli-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Napoli · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Juventus | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 18 of 39 · 1.38 per game | 25 of 39 · 1.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cremonese wins0 draws2 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Feb 2023Napoli3–0Cremonese
- 9 Oct 2022Cremonese1–4Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.87 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.33 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 47% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 27% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Cremonese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.27 | 3.23 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 7.85 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.27 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 13% 2/15 | |
| Cremonese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 7.33 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.93
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 40%
Fouls24.0league 26.0
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins47%league 40%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Jan 23H · Inter1–20
- L9 Jan 23A · Verona0–24
Napoli12 with this referee
Record7-2-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- W25 Oct 25H · Inter3–12
- W27 Apr 25H · Torino2–00
- D16 Mar 25A · Venezia0–01
- D10 Nov 24A · Inter1–10
- W3 Mar 24H · Juventus2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese16 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
1
76-90
Napoli15 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
