Cremonese
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cremonese18.0%fair odds 5.55
Draw24.3%fair odds 4.11
Napoli57.6%fair odds 1.74
Expected goals0.89 – 1.77total 2.66
Likeliest score0–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cremonese ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cremonese goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–111.8%8.48
- 1–111.6%8.62
- 0–211.0%9.12
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–07.6%13.21
- 0–36.5%15.44
- 1–35.8%17.36
- 1–05.6%17.76
- 2–14.9%20.42
- 2–24.3%23.05
Winning margin
1.5%
Cremonese by 3+
fair 66.90
4.5%
Cremonese by 2
fair 22.05
12.0%
Cremonese by 1
fair 8.33
24.3%
Draw
fair 4.11
24.5%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.09
18.0%
Napoli by 2
fair 5.56
15.2%
Napoli by 3+
fair 6.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Cremonese goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Napoli goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 18.0% | 18.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.3% | 23.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Napoli win | 57.6% | 58.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 54.9% | -5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.5% | 53.5% | -4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Cremonese | 0.89 | 0.97 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.77 | 1.90 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cremonese win18.0%5.55
- Draw24.3%4.11
- Napoli win57.6%1.74
- Double chance Cremonese or draw42.4%2.36
- Double chance Cremonese or Napoli75.7%1.32
- Double chance Napoli or draw82.0%1.22
- Draw no bet Cremonese23.8%4.20
- Draw no bet Napoli76.2%1.31
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.0%1.33
- Over 2.549.7%2.01
- Over 3.527.7%3.61
- Over 4.513.1%7.61
- Under 1.525.0%4.00
- Under 2.550.3%1.99
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes49.5%2.02
- No50.5%1.98
- Yes and over 2.537.9%2.64
- Cremonese win and yes8.6%11.64
- Draw and yes16.8%5.96
- Napoli win and yes24.1%4.15
Team goals
- Cremonese over 0.558.9%1.70
- Cremonese over 1.522.4%4.47
- Cremonese over 2.56.1%16.36
- Napoli over 0.583.0%1.20
- Napoli over 1.552.9%1.89
- Napoli over 2.526.2%3.82
- Cremonese clean sheet17.0%5.88
- Napoli clean sheet41.1%2.43
- Cremonese win to nil9.4%10.60
- Napoli win to nil33.5%2.98
Handicap
- Cremonese −1.56.0%16.59
- Cremonese −2.51.5%66.90
- Napoli +1.594.0%1.06
- Napoli +2.598.5%1.02
- Napoli −1.533.2%3.02
- Cremonese +1.566.8%1.50
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored162
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right54.9%
BTTS called right48.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 44.8% | 47.3% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.5% | 69.0% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 72.9% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 141 of 162 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6138 | 0.5973 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.5% | 48.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 141 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 162 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.