Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Cremonese had 16.1 days of rest, Udinese 15.3 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days16.1 · 15.3Matches / 14d0 · 0
Cremonese34%
Draw29%
Udinese37%
Cremonese36%
Draw27%
Udinese36%
Cremonese35%
Draw29%
Udinese36%
Cremonese28%
Draw28%
Udinese44%
Cremonese35%
Draw27%
Udinese38%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 58
Team strength
Cremonese
Udinese
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
16
AttackIn forecast
22
30
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseUdinese
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
5.67
ShotsContext
13.33
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
47%
On target shareContext
31%
3.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
57%
Box shareContext
48%
21%
ConversionContext
8%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
17.67
Shots allowedContext
11.00
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.83
BlocksContext
2.17
4.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
78%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
365
PassesContext
385
291
Accurate passesContext
322
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.67
FoulsContext
12.17
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.30
ShotsContext
13.10
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
29%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
58%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.71
17.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.30
BlocksContext
3.44
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
67%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
368
PassesContext
381
297
Accurate passesContext
317
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.50
FoulsContext
13.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest15.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel271 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.3Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
16M. Silvestri(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
7A. Zerbin
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
2S. Goglichidze
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
59A. Zanoli
15V. Bayo
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Udinese+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Udinese · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cremonese wins1 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 23 Apr 2023Udinese3–0Cremonese
- 30 Oct 2022Cremonese0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Cremonese | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 9.80 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 3.33 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cremonese | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 10.26 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.77
Red cards0.33league 0.13
Cards 5+34%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 25.9
Penalties0.12league 0.25
Home wins34%league 38%
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
Udinese4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Apr 24A · Sassuolo1–12
- D23 Dec 23A · Torino1–12
- D6 Oct 23A · Empoli0–02
- L9 Jan 22H · Atalanta2–62
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese6 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Udinese6 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
