Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace57.5%fair odds 1.74
Draw22.0%fair odds 4.55
Ipswich20.6%fair odds 4.86
Expected goals2.07 – 1.18total 3.25
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ipswich
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Ipswich → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Ipswich goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%10.03
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 2–08.3%11.98
- 1–07.6%13.23
- 3–16.8%14.77
- 2–25.8%17.35
- 3–05.8%17.36
- 1–25.6%17.96
- 0–04.4%22.76
- 0–14.1%24.56
Winning margin
17.7%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 5.66
17.5%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 5.70
22.3%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.49
22.0%
Draw
fair 4.55
12.4%
Ipswich by 1
fair 8.05
5.7%
Ipswich by 2
fair 17.69
2.5%
Ipswich by 3+
fair 40.00
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Crystal Palace goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Ipswich goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 57.5% | 58.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 21.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Ipswich win | 20.6% | 20.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 64.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.9% | 61.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 2.07 | 2.11 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Ipswich | 1.18 | 1.19 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win57.5%1.74
- Draw22.0%4.55
- Ipswich win20.6%4.86
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw79.4%1.26
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Ipswich78.0%1.28
- Double chance Ipswich or draw42.5%2.35
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace73.6%1.36
- Draw no bet Ipswich26.4%3.79
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.584.0%1.19
- Over 2.563.0%1.59
- Over 3.540.8%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.39
- Under 1.516.0%6.24
- Under 2.537.0%2.70
- Under 3.559.2%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes60.9%1.64
- No39.1%2.56
- Yes and over 2.550.9%1.96
- Crystal Palace win and yes31.0%3.23
- Draw and yes17.6%5.69
- Ipswich win and yes12.4%8.09
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.587.4%1.14
- Crystal Palace over 1.561.3%1.63
- Crystal Palace over 2.534.3%2.92
- Ipswich over 0.569.1%1.45
- Ipswich over 1.532.9%3.04
- Ipswich over 2.511.5%8.68
- Crystal Palace clean sheet30.9%3.24
- Ipswich clean sheet12.6%7.93
- Crystal Palace win to nil26.5%3.78
- Ipswich win to nil8.2%12.18
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.535.2%2.84
- Crystal Palace −2.517.7%5.66
- Ipswich +1.564.8%1.54
- Ipswich +2.582.3%1.21
- Ipswich −1.58.2%12.26
- Crystal Palace +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored30
Favourite won36.7%
Avg chance given to result38.0%
1X2 Brier0.649
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.4% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 44.8% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 56.1% | 30.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 67.5% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 30 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6974 | 0.6405 |
| Avg chance given to result | 34.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 31.6% | 36.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 30 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.