Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ipswich. Crystal Palace had 7 days of rest, Ipswich 7.8 and had to travel 107 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel107 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Crystal Palace58%
Draw21%
Ipswich21%
Crystal Palace57%
Draw23%
Ipswich20%
Crystal Palace58%
Draw21%
Ipswich21%
Crystal Palace50%
Draw23%
Ipswich27%
Crystal Palace59%
Draw21%
Ipswich21%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
23°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 19 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 170
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Ipswich
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
64
AttackIn forecast
59
54
DefenceIn forecast
50
54
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIpswich
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceIpswich
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
70%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
4.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
19.67
Shots allowedContext
18.00
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
6.00
BlocksContext
6.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
60%
Save rateContext
59%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
416
PassesContext
373
346
Accurate passesContext
306
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.00
FoulsContext
10.00
7.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
71%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.00
Shots allowedContext
14.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.30
BlocksContext
5.10
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
63%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
365
PassesContext
395
289
Accurate passesContext
321
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.10
FoulsContext
10.90
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
LLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 3 pts vs 2.5 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Ipswich |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 555 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor
5A. Disasi
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
20A. Wharton
23Q. Timber
25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Ipswich
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
3L. Davis
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
25E. Palacios
23S. Lukić
47J. Clarke
10J. Enciso
7I. Fatawu
19Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ipswich
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Ipswich-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Ipswich · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Crystal Palace wins0 draws0 Ipswich wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 8 Mar 2025Crystal Palace1–0Ipswich
- 3 Dec 2024Ipswich0–1Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 1.34 | 3.66 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Crystal Palace | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.10 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 170 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.87
Red cards0.14league 0.03
Cards 5+39%league 37%
Fouls22.0league 23.4
Penalties0.22league 0.17
Home wins41%league 40%
Crystal Palace9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L1 Mar 26A · Manchester United1–23
- W27 Sep 25H · Liverpool2–11
- W11 May 25A · Tottenham2–01
- W14 Apr 24A · Liverpool1–01
- D30 Mar 24A · Nottingham Forest1–11
Ipswich1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Apr 25H · Arsenal0–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Ipswich3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
8
31-45
5
5
46-60
61-75
3
4
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
