Crystal Palace vs Newcastle – 12 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 12 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 14th · 39 pts · 30 played LWLWD

2–1Full time

Newcastle 13th · 42 pts · 31 played LLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 28 days of rest, Newcastle 21 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days28 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Crystal Palace47%

Draw24%

Newcastle29%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.42

Crystal Palace36%

Draw27%

Newcastle37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Crystal Palace45%

Draw24%

Newcastle31%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.44

Crystal Palace39%

Draw24%

Newcastle37%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.59

Crystal Palace46%

Draw25%

Newcastle29%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.32

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 135

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

64 AttackIn forecast 61

54 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.42

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 77%

37% Clean sheetsContext 26%

11.67 ShotsContext 13.19

3.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

31% On target shareContext 36%

8.62 Shots in the boxContext 8.42

73% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.27 OffsidesContext 2.15

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.94

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.26

3.11 BlocksContext 3.82

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93

71% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 53%

395 PassesContext 448

309 Accurate passesContext 373

78% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.70 FoulsContext 10.17

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.03

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.68

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 31 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

80% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.30 ShotsContext 14.70

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

27% On target shareContext 42%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

71% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.11 OffsidesContext 3.20

8.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.63 BlocksContext 4.00

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

81% Save rateContext 61%

62% PossessionIn forecast 50%

527 PassesContext 403

444 Accurate passesContext 334

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.70 FoulsContext 11.90

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest28 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	28Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar	21Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8.3	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1D. Henderson(G)

23J. Canvot 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 8J. Lerma 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 22J. Strand Larsen 11B. Johnson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 67L. Miley

10A. Gordon 18W. Osula 23J. Murphy

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+1.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Newcastle-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.07points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 3-7-5
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.20

Newcastle · Away 1.07points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.27

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Leeds	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Tottenham	W 3–1 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Wolves	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Burnley	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Brighton	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Chelsea	L 1–3 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Aston Villa	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Fulham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Brentford	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Everton	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
West Ham	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Points	39 of 87 · 1.34 per game	39 of 90 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Crystal Palace wins4 draws4 Newcastle wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.50 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 60%

4 Jan 2026Newcastle2–0Crystal Palace
16 Apr 2025Newcastle5–0Crystal Palace
30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace1–1Newcastle
24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–0Newcastle
21 Oct 2023Newcastle4–0Crystal Palace
21 Jan 2023Crystal Palace0–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.42
Conceded per game	1.17	1.45
Match goals	2.27	2.87	3.26
Over 1.5	67%	74%
Over 2.5	47%	65%	63%
Over 3.5	17%	35%
Both teams scored	50%	65%	64%
Clean sheets	37%	26%
Failed to score	30%	23%
Games	30	31

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.80
Match goals	2.30	3.00	3.26
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.27	6.58
Corners conceded	4.83	5.03
Match total	9.10	11.61	10.05
Over 8.5	53% 16/30	81% 25/31
Over 9.5	43% 13/30	65% 20/31
Over 10.5	33% 10/30	55% 17/31
Cards
Cards	2.17	1.77
Opponent cards	2.03	2.48
Match total	4.20	4.25	3.90
Over 3.5	73% 22/30	61% 19/31
Over 4.5	60% 18/30	39% 12/31

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	6.00
Corners conceded	3.11	5.00
Match total	8.78	11.00	10.05
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	4.70	4.40	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.76

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+28%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 21.4

Penalties0.16league 0.22

Home wins46%league 42%

Crystal Palace15 with this referee

Record5-4-6 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds3

W5 Mar 26A · Tottenham3–12
D7 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–02
D5 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–12
D2 Apr 25A · Southampton1–11
W15 Jan 25A · Leicester2–00

Newcastle10 with this referee

Record3-4-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L7 Feb 26H · Brentford2–32
D20 Dec 25H · Chelsea2–23
L15 Feb 25A · Manchester City0–41
W4 Jan 25A · Tottenham2–14
D4 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.