Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Crystal Palace had 7 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 7 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Crystal Palace47%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest28%
Crystal Palace47%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest27%
Crystal Palace47%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest27%
Crystal Palace39%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest34%
Crystal Palace46%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest27%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 180
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
64
AttackIn forecast
68
54
DefenceIn forecast
74
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.70
ShotsContext
11.40
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
64%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.10
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.60
BlocksContext
4.33
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
55%
Save rateContext
70%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
338
PassesContext
361
262
Accurate passesContext
289
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.90
FoulsContext
10.10
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
19W. Hughes
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
55J. Devenny
14J. Mateta
7I. Sarr
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
14D. Ndoye
11C. Wood
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
No home games yet this season.
Nottingham Forest · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Crystal Palace wins4 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.83
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Crystal Palace
- 30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Crystal Palace
- 7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace0–0Nottingham Forest
- 28 May 2023Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 12 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest1–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 11.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.50 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 180 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.00
Red cards0.16league 0.13
Cards 5+34%league 31%
Fouls21.1league 21.1
Penalties0.28league 0.25
Home wins34%league 56%
Crystal Palace9 with this referee
Record1-3-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W5 Apr 25H · Brighton2–14
- L15 Feb 25H · Everton1–20
- D2 Nov 24A · Wolves2–22
- L5 Aug 22H · Arsenal0–21
- L19 May 22A · Everton2–33
Nottingham Forest11 with this referee
Record2-1-8
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L25 May 25H · Chelsea0–12
- W19 Jan 25H · Southampton3–20
- L10 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–31
- L21 Apr 24A · Everton0–22
- L10 Feb 24H · Newcastle2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Nottingham Forest1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
