Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace46.5%fair odds 2.15
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Nottingham Forest27.5%fair odds 3.63
Expected goals1.61 – 1.19total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Nottingham Forest → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Nottingham Forest goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.14
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 1–09.2%10.85
- 2–07.9%12.65
- 1–26.9%14.45
- 0–06.7%14.84
- 0–16.6%15.06
- 2–25.6%17.98
- 3–15.0%19.90
- 0–24.3%23.23
Winning margin
10.1%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 9.86
14.3%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 7.00
22.1%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.53
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
16.1%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 6.19
7.8%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 12.85
3.6%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 27.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Crystal Palace goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Nottingham Forest goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 46.5% | 46.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Nottingham Forest win | 27.5% | 27.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 51.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 54.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.61 | 1.57 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.19 | 1.15 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win46.5%2.15
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Nottingham Forest win27.5%3.63
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw72.5%1.38
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest74.1%1.35
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw53.5%1.87
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace62.8%1.59
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest37.2%2.69
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.7%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.61
- Under 1.522.6%4.43
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.3%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- Crystal Palace win and yes22.7%4.40
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Nottingham Forest win and yes14.2%7.02
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.580.0%1.25
- Crystal Palace over 1.547.7%2.09
- Crystal Palace over 2.521.9%4.58
- Nottingham Forest over 0.569.5%1.44
- Nottingham Forest over 1.533.2%3.01
- Nottingham Forest over 2.511.8%8.51
- Crystal Palace clean sheet30.5%3.27
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet20.0%4.99
- Crystal Palace win to nil23.8%4.20
- Nottingham Forest win to nil13.3%7.52
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.524.4%4.09
- Crystal Palace −2.510.1%9.86
- Nottingham Forest +1.575.6%1.32
- Nottingham Forest +2.589.9%1.11
- Nottingham Forest −1.511.4%8.77
- Crystal Palace +1.588.6%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored16
Favourite won62.5%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.534
Over 2.5 called right43.8%
BTTS called right25.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.3% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 46.0% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 53.3% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 66.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 71.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 16 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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- ✗Chelsea 0–0 Crystal Palace54·24·22
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 16 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.