Premier League Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 13 · 15:00 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 8th · 5 pts · 3 played
0–0Full time
Sunderland 6th · 6 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Crystal Palace were clear favourites.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 34). Crystal Palace had 12.8 days of rest, Sunderland 14 and had to travel 387 km.

Away travel387 kmRest days12.8 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Crystal Palace72%
Draw18%
Sunderland11%
Expected goals 2.39 – 0.82
Crystal Palace71%
Draw18%
Sunderland11%
Expected goals 2.30 – 0.78
Crystal Palace72%
Draw18%
Sunderland11%
Expected goals 2.39 – 0.82
Crystal Palace65%
Draw21%
Sunderland15%
Expected goals 2.13 – 0.92
Crystal Palace71%
Draw18%
Sunderland11%
Expected goals 2.30 – 0.78
Over 2.5 62% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.16
  • Matches 86

Team strength

Crystal PalaceSunderland
77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
64 AttackIn forecast 62
54 DefenceIn forecast 59
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal PalaceSunderland
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
0.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.02
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.65
67% Scored inContext 67%
67% Clean sheetsContext 33%
8.33 ShotsContext 10.33
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
48% On target shareContext 29%
5.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
69% Box shareContext 77%
16% ConversionContext 16%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50
13.67 Shots allowedContext 8.67
2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33
3.67 BlocksContext 2.67
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
86% Save rateContext 88%
37% PossessionIn forecast 50%
330 PassesContext 453
261 Accurate passesContext 373
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.85
12.33 FoulsContext 8.00
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.66
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00
-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 40%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.80 ShotsContext 9.30
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78
38% On target shareContext 27%
8.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.80
68% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 8%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.71
11.20 Shots allowedContext 11.80
2.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20
3.80 BlocksContext 3.60
2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
67% Save rateContext 68%
45% PossessionIn forecast 50%
375 PassesContext 431
297 Accurate passesContext 357
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.85
9.70 FoulsContext 10.40
9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Sunderland
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match12.8Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug14Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways325 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one78

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell 8J. Lerma 19W. Hughes 2D. Muñoz
18Daichi Kamada 10Yeremy Pino
14J. Mateta
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
Sunderland Confirmed XI
4-3-3
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 20N. Mukiele 32T. Hume
27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka 19M. Diarra
24S. Adingra 18W. Isidor 7C. Talbi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Sunderland+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Sunderland · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Crystal PalaceSunderlandForecast
Scored per game 1.331.67
Conceded per game 0.331.00
Match goals 1.672.67 3.21
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%67% 62%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 33%33% 51%
Clean sheets 67%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games33
Crystal PalaceSunderlandForecast
Scored per game 1.331.67
Conceded per game 0.331.00
Match goals 1.672.67 3.21
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%67% 62%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 33%33% 51%
Clean sheets 67%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal PalaceSunderlandLeague
Corners
Corners won1.333.67
Corners conceded8.005.00
Match total9.338.679.27
Over 8.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 9.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 10.567% 2/333% 1/3
Cards
Cards3.001.33
Opponent cards2.331.00
Match total5.332.333.47
Over 3.5100% 3/333% 1/3
Over 4.5100% 3/333% 1/3
Crystal PalaceSunderlandLeague
Corners
Corners won4.385.40
Corners conceded4.883.70
Match total9.269.109.27
Over 8.575% 6/850% 5/10
Over 9.563% 5/840% 4/10
Over 10.550% 4/840% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.602.10
Opponent cards2.601.80
Match total4.203.903.47
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.45
Red cards0.16league 0.10
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 22.3
Penalties0.16league 0.32
Home wins50%league 52%
Crystal Palace5 with this referee
Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1
  • W18 Jan 25A · West Ham2–00
  • D26 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–02
  • W11 May 24A · Wolves3–14
  • W24 Apr 24H · Newcastle2–03
  • D28 May 23H · Nottingham Forest1–10
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W5 Jan 25H · Portsmouth1–01
  • W10 Apr 23A · Cardiff1–01
  • D4 Feb 23A · Millwall1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace3 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Sunderland3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
2 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

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