Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 22 played
LLDWD
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
Genk
12th · 26 pts · 22 played
DDLLD
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Dender had 6.9 days of rest, Genk 2.8 and had to travel 100 km.
Away travel100 kmRest days6.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Dender30%
Draw26%
Genk44%
Dender33%
Draw27%
Genk40%
Dender30%
Draw26%
Genk44%
Dender24%
Draw25%
Genk51%
Dender31%
Draw27%
Genk43%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 34
Team strength
DenderGenk
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
15
AttackIn forecast
46
15
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderGenk
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
59%
Scored inContext
86%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
9.82
ShotsContext
15.64
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.59
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
71%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.28
OffsidesContext
2.08
14.09
Shots allowedContext
11.82
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.65
BlocksContext
3.30
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
378
PassesContext
554
285
Accurate passesContext
482
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.95
FoulsContext
10.18
11.55
Fouls sufferedContext
12.95
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
15.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
35%
On target shareContext
40%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
73%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.38
BlocksContext
2.90
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
354
PassesContext
509
260
Accurate passesContext
434
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.50
FoulsContext
10.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel100 km256 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 100 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 39 km | 256 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
19Y. Medina
8B. Heynen
38D. Heymans
77Z. El Ouahdi
10J. Ito
23A. Bibout
20K. Karetsas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.55
Genk · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 63 · 0.81 per game | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025Genk2–1Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.32 | 2.86 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 59% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 82% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Dender | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.76 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 9.47 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 3/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| Match total | 3.46 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Dender | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 10.22 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.70 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.82
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 40%
Fouls22.5league 22.9
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins44%league 40%
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Dec 25H · Standard Liege0–14
Genk1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Dec 23H · Gent2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender22 games · scored 17 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
Genk22 games · scored 29 · conceded 34
5
9
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
9
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
