Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 22 played
LLDWD
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
Genk
12th · 26 pts · 22 played
DDLLD
Dender29.8%fair odds 3.35
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
Genk43.7%fair odds 2.29
Expected goals1.22 – 1.53total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dender ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dender goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 0–19.1%10.94
- 1–29.1%10.97
- 0–27.5%13.41
- 2–17.3%13.70
- 1–07.2%13.89
- 0–07.0%14.20
- 2–25.6%17.96
- 2–04.8%20.90
- 1–34.6%21.58
Winning margin
4.1%
Dender by 3+
fair 24.12
8.5%
Dender by 2
fair 11.70
17.2%
Dender by 1
fair 5.83
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
21.6%
Genk by 1
fair 4.64
13.3%
Genk by 2
fair 7.51
8.8%
Genk by 3+
fair 11.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Dender goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Genk goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 29.8% | 30.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Genk win | 43.7% | 42.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 51.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 55.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.22 | 1.23 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.53 | 1.49 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dender win29.8%3.35
- Draw26.5%3.78
- Genk win43.7%2.29
- Double chance Dender or draw56.3%1.78
- Double chance Dender or Genk73.5%1.36
- Double chance Genk or draw70.2%1.43
- Draw no bet Dender40.6%2.46
- Draw no bet Genk59.4%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.6%1.31
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.37
- Over 4.514.4%6.93
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Dender win and yes15.1%6.61
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- Genk win and yes21.2%4.71
Team goals
- Dender over 0.570.5%1.42
- Dender over 1.534.5%2.90
- Dender over 2.512.5%7.98
- Genk over 0.578.2%1.28
- Genk over 1.545.1%2.22
- Genk over 2.519.8%5.06
- Dender clean sheet21.8%4.60
- Genk clean sheet29.5%3.39
- Dender win to nil14.7%6.80
- Genk win to nil22.4%4.46
Handicap
- Dender −1.512.7%7.88
- Dender −2.54.1%24.12
- Genk +1.587.3%1.15
- Genk +2.595.9%1.04
- Genk −1.522.1%4.53
- Dender +1.577.9%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored181
Favourite won42.5%
Avg chance given to result37.0%
1X2 Brier0.639
Over 2.5 called right50.8%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 87 | 44.8% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.4% | 53.7% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 143 of 181 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6482 | 0.6428 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.7% | 37.4% |
| Favourite won | 41.3% | 40.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 143 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Standard Liege 2–0 Anderlecht32·27·41
- ✗St. Truiden 0–2 Charleroi50·26·24
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 KVC Westerlo48·25·27
- ✗Cercle Brugge 0–4 Antwerp40·28·33
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 1–1 Gent31·28·41
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 KVC Westerlo51·25·24
- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 Dender61·22·17
- ✗Genk 1–1 Cercle Brugge53·24·23
- ✗Antwerp 0–2 Charleroi53·25·22
- ✗OH Leuven 0–0 Union St. Gilloise22·24·54
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 181 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.