Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 29 · 15:00 DENDER Football Complex, Denderleeuw
Dender 16th · 8 pts · 15 played
First leg1–1 2–2Full time
KVC Westerlo 12th · 16 pts · 15 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Dender were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Dender had 6 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 6.9 and had to travel 63 km.

Away travel63 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Dender42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.21
Dender42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
Dender42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.21
Dender35%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo38%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.35
Dender42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)

No weather data yet

RefereeJan Boterberg
  • Cards per match 3.1
  • Penalties per match 0.21
  • Matches 24

Team strength

DenderKVC Westerlo
20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22
15 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
15 AttackIn forecast 42
15 DefenceIn forecast 32
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dender

Attack—
Defense risk—

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

DenderKVC Westerlo
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.49
1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.22
53% Scored inContext 53%
13% Clean sheetsContext 33%
9.60 ShotsContext 15.40
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71
33% On target shareContext 29%
6.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.73
68% Box shareContext 68%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.31 OffsidesContext 1.40
14.13 Shots allowedContext 11.80
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.67 BlocksContext 3.83
2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93
66% Save rateContext 67%
47% PossessionIn forecast 50%
391 PassesContext 383
301 Accurate passesContext 310
77% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.88
10.53 FoulsContext 11.27
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.47
1.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.53
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.36
70% Scored inContext 40%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.80 ShotsContext 14.90
3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
34% On target shareContext 26%
7.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.70
67% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 7%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.44
15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
4.30 BlocksContext 3.75
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
64% Save rateContext 72%
45% PossessionIn forecast 51%
371 PassesContext 393
284 Accurate passesContext 321
77% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.93
11.10 FoulsContext 10.50
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dender
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km93 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
KVC Westerlo
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Dender KVC Westerlo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways93 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.28

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dender Confirmed XI
5-3-2
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro 7B. Goncalves 18N. Rôdes 5L. Marijnissen 70M. Sambu
16R. Květ 17N. Mbamba 24M. Viltard
9David Toševski 77B. Nsimba
KVC Westerlo Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Jungdal(G)
22B. Reynolds 4A. Lapage 40E. Bayram 23L. Mbamba-Muanda
46A. Piedfort 34D. Haspolat
18G. Yow 13I. Sakamoto 7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Dender Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Dender+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Dender · Home 0.43points per game · 7 home games
W-D-L
0-3-4
Scored
0.43
Conceded
1.29
KVC Westerlo · Away 0.71points per game · 7 away games
W-D-L
1-2-4
Scored
1.57
Conceded
2.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentDenderKVC Westerlo
Antwerp W 2–1 A W 2–0 H
Zulte Waregem D 2–2 H W 3–1 H
Club Brugge KV L 1–2 A D 5–5 A
KV Mechelen L 1–3 H L 0–1 H
Genk L 1–2 A L 0–1 H
RAAL La Louvière D 0–0 H D 0–0 A
Gent L 0–3 A D 0–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–1 H L 0–2 A
Charleroi L 1–3 A L 0–2 A
OH Leuven L 0–1 H W 2–0 H
Anderlecht L 0–2 H L 2–5 A
St. Truiden L 0–2 A W 3–0 A
Standard Liege D 1–1 A L 0–2 H
Cercle Brugge D 0–0 H L 1–4 A
Points7 of 42 · 0.50 per game15 of 42 · 1.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Dender wins1 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 25 Oct 2025KVC Westerlo1–1Dender

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

DenderKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 0.671.27
Conceded per game 1.601.60
Match goals 2.272.87 2.65
Over 1.5 73%73%
Over 2.5 47%33% 49%
Over 3.5 20%27%
Both teams scored 53%33% 54%
Clean sheets 13%33%
Failed to score 47%47%
Games1515
DenderKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 0.901.10
Conceded per game 1.801.30
Match goals 2.702.40 2.65
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 70%20% 49%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 70%20% 54%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 30%60%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

DenderKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won3.205.33
Corners conceded5.074.60
Match total8.279.939.53
Over 8.547% 7/1567% 10/15
Over 9.533% 5/1560% 9/15
Over 10.513% 2/1560% 9/15
Cards
Cards1.671.53
Opponent cards1.601.87
Match total3.273.404.09
Over 3.547% 7/1553% 8/15
Over 4.527% 4/1527% 4/15
DenderKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won3.605.10
Corners conceded5.104.60
Match total8.709.709.53
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.520% 2/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.701.60
Opponent cards1.201.90
Match total2.903.504.09
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jan Boterberg 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.92league 3.88
Red cards0.13league 0.21
Cards 5+21%league 44%
Fouls19.7league 23.0
Penalties0.21league 0.27
Home wins46%league 43%
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L19 Sep 25A · Gent0–31
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W30 Aug 25H · Antwerp2–02
  • L3 Feb 24H · OH Leuven0–30
  • L6 Aug 23H · Club Brugge KV0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Dender15 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
5 7 76-90
KVC Westerlo15 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
3 1 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 8 31-45
4 2 46-60
5 4 61-75
3 6 76-90
Dender10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
3 3 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 6 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KV Mechelen Standard Liege 01 Dender KVC Westerlo 22 Zulte Waregem Cercle Brugge 11 Charleroi RAAL La Louvière 00 Club Brugge KV Antwerp 01 Genk OH Leuven 21 Anderlecht Union St. Gilloise 10 Gent St. Truiden 12