Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dender
16th · 8 pts · 15 played
LDLDW
First leg1–1
2–2Full time
KVC Westerlo
12th · 16 pts · 15 played
DDLLD
Dender41.7%fair odds 2.40
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
KVC Westerlo31.0%fair odds 3.22
Expected goals1.44 – 1.21total 2.65
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dender ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dender goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.71
- 1–09.5%10.48
- 2–18.9%11.28
- 0–17.9%12.65
- 0–07.7%12.92
- 1–27.4%13.44
- 2–07.3%13.63
- 2–25.4%18.68
- 0–25.2%19.34
- 3–14.3%23.53
Winning margin
7.7%
Dender by 3+
fair 12.92
12.6%
Dender by 2
fair 7.92
21.4%
Dender by 1
fair 4.68
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
17.8%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 5.60
8.9%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 11.24
4.3%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 23.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Dender goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 41.7% | 42.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.0% | +0.3 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 31.0% | 30.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 50.3% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 54.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.44 | 1.47 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.21 | 1.22 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dender win41.7%2.40
- Draw27.2%3.67
- KVC Westerlo win31.0%3.22
- Double chance Dender or draw69.0%1.45
- Double chance Dender or KVC Westerlo72.8%1.37
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw58.3%1.72
- Draw no bet Dender57.4%1.74
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo42.6%2.34
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.8%1.34
- Over 2.549.3%2.03
- Over 3.527.4%3.65
- Over 4.512.9%7.73
- Under 1.525.2%3.97
- Under 2.550.7%1.97
- Under 3.572.6%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.2%2.43
- Dender win and yes19.6%5.10
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- KVC Westerlo win and yes15.1%6.64
Team goals
- Dender over 0.576.3%1.31
- Dender over 1.542.2%2.37
- Dender over 2.517.6%5.68
- KVC Westerlo over 0.570.1%1.43
- KVC Westerlo over 1.534.0%2.94
- KVC Westerlo over 2.512.2%8.18
- Dender clean sheet29.9%3.35
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet23.7%4.22
- Dender win to nil22.1%4.52
- KVC Westerlo win to nil16.0%6.26
Handicap
- Dender −1.520.4%4.91
- Dender −2.57.7%12.92
- KVC Westerlo +1.579.6%1.26
- KVC Westerlo +2.592.3%1.08
- KVC Westerlo −1.513.2%7.58
- Dender +1.586.8%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored121
Favourite won46.3%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.611
Over 2.5 called right52.1%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 64 | 44.9% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 83 of 121 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6131 | 0.6062 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.6% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 45.8% | 48.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 83 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard Liege49·26·25
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 St. Truiden38·27·35
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 0–1 Anderlecht29·28·43
- ✗Antwerp 1–2 Dender57·24·19
- ✗Genk 0–1 KV Mechelen51·25·24
- ✓Club Brugge KV 1–0 Charleroi73·17·10
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–0 Gent32·27·41
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle Brugge66·21·14
- ✗Standard Liege 0–0 Zulte Waregem42·28·30
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Union St. Gilloise28·27·45
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 121 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.