Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 12 pts · 18 played
DWDWL
First leg1–1
0–1Full time
Standard Liege
7th · 24 pts · 18 played
LDWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 20). Dender had 6 days of rest, Standard Liege 7.8 and had to travel 109 km.
Away travel109 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Dender37%
Draw28%
Standard Liege35%
Dender37%
Draw27%
Standard Liege36%
Dender37%
Draw28%
Standard Liege35%
Dender30%
Draw27%
Standard Liege42%
Dender37%
Draw27%
Standard Liege36%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 33
Team strength
DenderStandard Liege
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
15
AttackIn forecast
29
15
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderStandard Liege
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
61%
Scored inContext
56%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
9.50
ShotsContext
9.78
3.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.39
35%
On target shareContext
35%
6.61
Shots in the boxContext
6.76
69%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.67
Shots allowedContext
14.11
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.59
BlocksContext
4.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.59
64%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
384
PassesContext
365
293
Accurate passesContext
285
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.33
FoulsContext
11.22
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
90%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
70%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.29
16.10
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
62%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
362
PassesContext
358
276
Accurate passesContext
278
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.50
FoulsContext
12.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel109 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 109 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 353 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
17N. Mbamba
24M. Viltard
27A. Jahanbakhsh
70M. Sambu
90Mohamed Berte
77B. Nsimba
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
29D. Dierckx
7T. Mohr
8N. Mehssatou
23M. Ilaimaharitra
18H. Lawrence
94C. Nielsen
10D. Eckert Ayensa
59T. Nkada
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.78
Standard Liege · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Points | 11 of 51 · 0.65 per game | 23 of 51 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Aug 2025Standard Liege1–1Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.06 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 39% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 44% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Dender | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.90 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.06 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.39 | |
| Match total | 7.94 | 9.22 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 7/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 2/17 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.11 | 4.17 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Dender | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.40 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 3.77
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+48%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.9
Penalties0.36league 0.30
Home wins45%league 41%
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
Standard Liege5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L9 Nov 25A · St. Truiden0–11
- D12 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen1–13
- L25 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–23
- L29 Oct 23A · Gent1–32
- D13 Aug 23A · Charleroi1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender18 games · scored 15 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
Standard Liege18 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
