Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 22). Dender had 13.9 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 13 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days13.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Dender23%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Dender23%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Dender23%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Dender18%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise60%
Dender23%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Dender
Union St. Gilloise
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
15
AttackIn forecast
62
15
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderUnion St. Gilloise
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
2.54
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
33%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
7.50
ShotsContext
16.33
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.83
33%
On target shareContext
48%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
69%
Box shareContext
73%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
3.20
OffsidesContext
3.80
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.67
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.67
BlocksContext
1.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
63%
Save rateContext
81%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
435
PassesContext
455
338
Accurate passesContext
378
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.12
10.17
FoulsContext
11.83
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
1.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
2.31
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
33%
Scored inContext
80%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.50
ShotsContext
16.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
33%
On target shareContext
41%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.22
69%
Box shareContext
74%
4%
ConversionContext
12%
3.20
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
1.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
63%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
435
PassesContext
479
338
Accurate passesContext
392
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.17
FoulsContext
12.90
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km117 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 117 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
44L. De Fougerolles
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
18N. Rôdes
88F. Ferraro
17N. Mbamba
24M. Viltard
20D. Hrnčár
77B. Nsimba
16R. Květ
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
48F. Leysen
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
4M. Rasmussen
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
12P. David
10A. Ait El Hadj
30R. Florucz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 2.83 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Dender | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 2.83 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.34 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.84 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Dender | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.22 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 6.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.81
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 40%
Fouls20.0league 23.2
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins100%league 49%
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
Union St. GilloiseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender6 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise6 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Dender6 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
