Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dender23.0%fair odds 4.35
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.01
Union St. Gilloise52.1%fair odds 1.92
Expected goals1.08 – 1.73total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dender ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dender goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.44
- 0–19.8%10.16
- 1–29.7%10.27
- 0–29.0%11.07
- 0–06.6%15.10
- 2–16.1%16.50
- 1–05.9%16.95
- 1–35.6%17.81
- 2–25.2%19.07
- 0–35.2%19.19
Winning margin
2.6%
Dender by 3+
fair 38.89
6.3%
Dender by 2
fair 15.99
14.2%
Dender by 1
fair 7.06
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.01
23.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.33
16.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 6.20
12.8%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 7.80
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Dender goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 23.0% | 23.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 52.1% | 51.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 51.8% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 53.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.08 | 1.06 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.73 | 1.68 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dender win23.0%4.35
- Draw24.9%4.01
- Union St. Gilloise win52.1%1.92
- Double chance Dender or draw47.9%2.09
- Double chance Dender or Union St. Gilloise75.1%1.33
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw77.0%1.30
- Draw no bet Dender30.6%3.26
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise69.4%1.44
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.23
- Over 4.515.4%6.51
- Under 1.522.4%4.47
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.32
- Dender win and yes11.9%8.40
- Draw and yes18.3%5.46
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes24.7%4.06
Team goals
- Dender over 0.566.0%1.52
- Dender over 1.529.3%3.42
- Dender over 2.59.5%10.51
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.582.3%1.22
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.551.6%1.94
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.525.1%3.98
- Dender clean sheet17.7%5.65
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet34.0%2.94
- Dender win to nil11.1%9.02
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil27.4%3.65
Handicap
- Dender −1.58.8%11.33
- Dender −2.52.6%38.89
- Union St. Gilloise +1.591.2%1.10
- Union St. Gilloise +2.597.4%1.03
- Union St. Gilloise −1.529.0%3.45
- Dender +1.571.0%1.41
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won51.1%
Avg chance given to result38.8%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right55.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.8% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.3% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5401 | 0.5969 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.3% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Genk 3–2 Zulte Waregem56·24·20
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Anderlecht48·26·27
- ✓OH Leuven 1–0 Standard Liege38·28·34
- ✗Gent 1–1 Club Brugge KV27·26·48
- ✓Charleroi 3–1 Dender41·27·32
- ✗KVC Westerlo 2–0 Antwerp27·27·46
- ✓KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La Louvière49·27·24
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. Truiden42·27·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.