Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dender35.5%fair odds 2.82
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Zulte Waregem36.8%fair odds 2.72
Expected goals1.28 – 1.31total 2.59
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dender ↓ · Zulte Waregem → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dender goals, columns Zulte Waregem goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.55
- 0–19.1%10.94
- 1–08.9%11.19
- 1–28.2%12.15
- 0–08.2%12.26
- 2–18.1%12.40
- 0–26.4%15.57
- 2–06.2%16.24
- 2–25.3%18.94
- 1–33.6%27.83
Winning margin
5.5%
Dender by 3+
fair 18.30
10.4%
Dender by 2
fair 9.60
19.6%
Dender by 1
fair 5.10
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
20.0%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 4.99
10.9%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 9.21
5.9%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 17.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Dender goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Zulte Waregem goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 35.5% | 35.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Zulte Waregem win | 36.8% | 36.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.0% | 50.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.4% | 55.0% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.28 | 1.33 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.31 | 1.35 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dender win35.5%2.82
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Zulte Waregem win36.8%2.72
- Double chance Dender or draw63.2%1.58
- Double chance Dender or Zulte Waregem72.2%1.38
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw64.5%1.55
- Draw no bet Dender49.1%2.04
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem50.9%1.97
Goals
- Over 0.591.8%1.09
- Over 1.573.8%1.36
- Over 2.548.0%2.09
- Over 3.526.2%3.81
- Over 4.512.1%8.24
- Under 1.526.2%3.81
- Under 2.552.0%1.92
- Under 3.573.8%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.4%1.87
- No46.6%2.15
- Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
- Dender win and yes16.6%6.01
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Zulte Waregem win and yes17.2%5.82
Team goals
- Dender over 0.572.3%1.38
- Dender over 1.536.7%2.73
- Dender over 2.513.9%7.20
- Zulte Waregem over 0.573.0%1.37
- Zulte Waregem over 1.537.7%2.66
- Zulte Waregem over 2.514.5%6.89
- Dender clean sheet27.0%3.70
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet27.7%3.60
- Dender win to nil18.8%5.31
- Zulte Waregem win to nil19.6%5.11
Handicap
- Dender −1.515.9%6.30
- Dender −2.55.5%18.30
- Zulte Waregem +1.584.1%1.19
- Zulte Waregem +2.594.5%1.06
- Zulte Waregem −1.516.7%5.98
- Dender +1.583.3%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored104
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result38.8%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right51.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.4% | 31.6% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 45.1% | 37.7% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 66 of 104 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6015 | 0.5922 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.3% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 66 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Cercle Brugge43·28·30
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Antwerp38·27·34
- ✗OH Leuven 4–0 Gent27·26·46
- ✓KVC Westerlo 0–1 Genk34·27·39
- ✓Anderlecht 3–1 KV Mechelen52·25·23
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Dender77·15·8
- ✓Zulte Waregem 1–4 Union St. Gilloise28·27·46
- ✓Standard Liege 3–1 Charleroi47·27·26
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. Truiden61·23·16
- ✗Genk 1–1 RAAL La Louvière53·25·22
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 104 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.