Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Zulte Waregem were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 18). Dender had 6.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6.2 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Dender35%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem37%
Dender36%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem37%
Dender35%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem37%
Dender29%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem44%
Dender36%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Dender
Zulte Waregem
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
15
AttackIn forecast
27
15
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderZulte Waregem
0.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
46%
Scored inContext
77%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.31
ShotsContext
11.85
3.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.31
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
67%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.31
Shots allowedContext
14.08
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
3.92
BlocksContext
3.50
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
66%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
391
PassesContext
382
302
Accurate passesContext
312
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.69
FoulsContext
11.00
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
40%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
65%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.17
15.20
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.40
BlocksContext
3.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
64%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
374
PassesContext
374
289
Accurate passesContext
304
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.60
FoulsContext
11.40
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km265 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel45 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 265 km | 77 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
88F. Ferraro
44L. De Fougerolles
22B. Fredrick
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
17N. Mbamba
24M. Viltard
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
4L. Lemoine
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
39M. Aké
18A. Ementa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.17
- Conceded
- 1.17
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 36 · 0.25 per game | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.46 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 2.92 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 46% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 62% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Dender | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 6.92 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 11.09 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 1/13 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 3.23 | 3.77 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Dender | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.56 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.83
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+22%league 41%
Fouls21.8league 23.1
Penalties0.11league 0.29
Home wins33%league 44%
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L19 Oct 25H · KV Mechelen1–31
- D26 Jul 25H · Cercle Brugge0–00
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Sep 25A · Charleroi2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender13 games · scored 6 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
6
76-90
Zulte Waregem13 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 5 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
