Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dinamo Zagreb44.3%fair odds 2.26
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
Celta Vigo30.4%fair odds 3.29
Expected goals1.64 – 1.33total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dinamo Zagreb ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dinamo Zagreb goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.49
- 2–19.2%10.89
- 1–07.8%12.76
- 1–27.4%13.47
- 2–06.9%14.45
- 0–16.2%16.07
- 2–26.1%16.41
- 0–05.7%17.45
- 3–15.0%19.89
- 0–24.5%22.11
Winning margin
9.7%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 10.31
13.5%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 7.39
21.0%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 4.75
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
16.9%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 5.92
8.8%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 11.31
4.7%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 21.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Celta Vigo goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 44.3% | 43.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 30.4% | 30.4% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 53.5% | +3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 57.2% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.64 | 1.55 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.33 | 1.26 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dinamo Zagreb win44.3%2.26
- Draw25.3%3.95
- Celta Vigo win30.4%3.29
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw69.6%1.44
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or Celta Vigo74.7%1.34
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw55.7%1.79
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb59.3%1.69
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo40.7%2.46
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.2%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.76
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.518.0%5.57
- Under 1.519.8%5.05
- Under 2.543.0%2.32
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.548.1%2.08
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Celta Vigo win and yes16.8%5.96
Team goals
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.580.6%1.24
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.548.8%2.05
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.522.7%4.40
- Celta Vigo over 0.573.5%1.36
- Celta Vigo over 1.538.3%2.61
- Celta Vigo over 2.514.9%6.70
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet26.5%3.77
- Celta Vigo clean sheet19.4%5.16
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil20.8%4.81
- Celta Vigo win to nil13.6%7.33
Handicap
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.523.2%4.30
- Dinamo Zagreb −2.59.7%10.31
- Celta Vigo +1.576.8%1.30
- Celta Vigo +2.590.3%1.11
- Celta Vigo −1.513.5%7.39
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.586.5%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored54
Favourite won53.7%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 24 | 44.3% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.0% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 54 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5890 | 0.6070 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.8% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 54 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.