UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 6 · 17:45 Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb 4th · 7 pts · 3 played
0–3Full time
Celta Vigo 9th · 6 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Dinamo Zagreb had 13.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4.2 and had to travel 2,006 km.

Away travel2,006 kmRest days13.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3
Dinamo Zagreb44%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo30%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.33
Dinamo Zagreb43%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo30%
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21
Dinamo Zagreb44%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo30%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.27
Dinamo Zagreb37%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo38%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.49
Dinamo Zagreb43%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo30%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.26
Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zagreb)

No weather data yet

Referee · GreeceAnastasios Papapetrou
  • Cards per match 4.6
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 42

Team strength

Dinamo ZagrebCelta Vigo
56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
33 AttackIn forecast 36
44 DefenceIn forecast 61
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo ZagrebCelta Vigo
2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
0.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
+1.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.69
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.00 ShotsContext 16.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
33% On target shareContext 33%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
69% Box shareContext 69%
19% ConversionContext 13%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
7.67 Shots allowedContext 11.00
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67
1.67 BlocksContext 4.33
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
67% Save rateContext 64%
56% PossessionIn forecast 56%
513 PassesContext 545
444 Accurate passesContext 480
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.00
9.00 FoulsContext 14.00
7.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.69 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
70% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.70 ShotsContext 13.90
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
31% On target shareContext 33%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
58% Box shareContext 65%
16% ConversionContext 12%
1.90 OffsidesContext 2.43
11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.30
3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.20 BlocksContext 3.20
2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
59% Save rateContext 78%
44% PossessionIn forecast 51%
391 PassesContext 500
321 Accurate passesContext 433
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.50 FoulsContext 11.70
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,217 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Celta Vigo
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,006 km2,698 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Dinamo Zagreb Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,006 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,217 km2,698 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one213.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI
4-3-3
33I. Nevistić(G)
3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez 28K. Théophile-Catherine
8M. Zajc 27J. Mišić 77D. Ljubičić
11A. Hoxha 17S. Kulenović 21M. Lisica
+7 more reported missing outside this XI
Celta Vigo Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1Iván Villar(G)
21M. Ristić 24Carlos Domínguez 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez
16Miguel Román 8Fran Beltrán 10Iago Aspas
15Bryan Zaragoza 18Pablo Durán 39Jones El-Abdellaoui
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Dinamo Zagreb Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Dinamo Zagreb+0.7 pp
  • Draw-0.7 pp
  • Celta Vigo+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Celta Vigo · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Dinamo ZagrebCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 2.332.00
Conceded per game 1.001.33
Match goals 3.333.33 2.97
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 67%100% 57%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 100%100% 60%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games33
Dinamo ZagrebCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 2.331.60
Conceded per game 1.001.30
Match goals 3.332.90 2.97
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 67%60% 57%
Over 3.5 67%20%
Both teams scored 100%100% 60%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games310

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Dinamo ZagrebCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.674.67
Corners conceded4.334.00
Match total10.008.679.13
Over 8.567% 2/367% 2/3
Over 9.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 10.567% 2/333% 1/3
Cards
Cards1.672.00
Opponent cards1.672.67
Match total3.344.674.20
Over 3.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Over 4.533% 1/367% 2/3
Dinamo ZagrebCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won4.204.60
Corners conceded6.805.00
Match total11.009.609.13
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.302.20
Opponent cards2.302.70
Match total4.604.904.20
Over 3.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anastasios Papapetrou Greece · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 4.06
Red cards0.19league 0.15
Cards 5+48%league 39%
Fouls26.1league 24.9
Penalties0.33league 0.39
Home wins43%league 48%
Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Dinamo Zagreb3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Celta Vigo3 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
4 4 61-75
4 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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