Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack+20%
Defense risk−21%
Eintracht Frankfurt
14th · 5 pts · 5 played
DLWDL
1–0Full time
1.FC Köln
10th · 7 pts · 5 played
WLDLW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. Eintracht Frankfurt were without J. Maluze. 1.FC Köln were without E. Skhiri and T. Dallinga. Eintracht Frankfurt had 6.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 5.2 and had to travel 153 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel153 kmRest days6.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln25%
Eintracht Frankfurt52%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln23%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln26%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln33%
Eintracht Frankfurt52%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln26%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
16°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 66
Team strength
Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC Köln
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
54
AttackIn forecast
36
37
DefenceIn forecast
36
39
Form indexContext
48
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack+21%
Defense risk−6%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC Köln
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
3.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
2.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.60
ShotsContext
17.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
38%
On target shareContext
33%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
79%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.00
19.20
Shots allowedContext
15.80
7.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
5.20
BlocksContext
3.80
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
64%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
433
PassesContext
428
352
Accurate passesContext
359
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.80
FoulsContext
10.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
90%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.10
ShotsContext
15.40
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
40%
On target shareContext
33%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
68%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.14
16.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.56
BlocksContext
3.60
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
64%
Save rateContext
58%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
439
PassesContext
422
364
Accurate passesContext
352
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.70
FoulsContext
8.30
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
DLWDL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 5 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
1.FC Köln
WLDLW
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel153 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 48 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 586 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi
3L. Brassier
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi
27M. Götze
25R. Onyedika
20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib
9J. Burkardt
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina
5T. Krauß
8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.6% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Maluze Core 7.44 Def −7.4%
- ATT Malik Pimpong Depth 6.50 Att −0.4%
- ATT J. Ngankam Depth 6.27 Att −0.1%
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −23.6% · Defence line −8.0% of weighted minutes
- MID E. Skhiri Starter 6.79 Att −7.4% Def −4.2%
- ATT T. Dallinga Starter 7.31 Att −7.7%
- ATT R. Ache Rotation 6.83 Att −6.6%
- DEF R. van den Berg Rotation 6.53 Def −2.5%
- MID A. Castro-Montes Rotation 6.67 Att −1.9% Def −1.1%
- DEF T. Hübers Depth 7.35 Def −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1.FC Köln-0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
1.FC Köln · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws3 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.75
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets0% · 38%
- 5 Apr 2026Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.FC Köln
- 22 Nov 20251.FC Köln3–4Eintracht Frankfurt
- 3 Feb 20241.FC Köln2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 3 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
- 12 Feb 20231.FC Köln3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21 Aug 2022Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.56 | 10.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.44
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 18%
Fouls22.6league 22.5
Penalties0.33league 0.13
Home wins35%league 51%
Eintracht Frankfurt7 with this referee
Record1-5-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D16 Jan 26A · Werder Bremen3–34
- W17 May 25A · SC Freiburg3–14
- D2 Feb 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–11
- L15 Dec 24A · RB Leipzig1–23
- D6 Oct 24H · Bayern München3–31
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L25 Oct 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–12
- L20 Sep 25A · RB Leipzig1–31
- D28 Apr 24A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- L28 Oct 23A · RB Leipzig0–64
- D13 Aug 22A · RB Leipzig2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt5 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
5
3
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
76-90
1.FC Köln5 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 27
6
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
7
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
