Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 10 pts · 7 played
LLWLD
2–0Full time
FC St. Pauli
14th · 7 pts · 7 played
WLLLL
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were clear favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 28). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. Eintracht Frankfurt had 6 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 5.9 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt70%
Draw18%
FC St. Pauli12%
Eintracht Frankfurt68%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli13%
Eintracht Frankfurt69%
Draw19%
FC St. Pauli12%
Eintracht Frankfurt63%
Draw21%
FC St. Pauli16%
Eintracht Frankfurt69%
Draw19%
FC St. Pauli12%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtFC St. Pauli
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
54
AttackIn forecast
20
37
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtFC St. Pauli
2.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+1.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
86%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.29
ShotsContext
12.00
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
37%
On target shareContext
39%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
59%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.86
Shots allowedContext
10.29
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.14
BlocksContext
3.60
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
54%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
484
PassesContext
487
402
Accurate passesContext
394
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.29
FoulsContext
12.43
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+1.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
64%
Box shareContext
58%
23%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.00
BlocksContext
3.71
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
59%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
461
PassesContext
443
382
Accurate passesContext
356
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.50
FoulsContext
11.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel392 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 487 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
15E. Skhiri
21N. Brown
42C. Uzun
8F. Chaïbi
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
7A. Knauff
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
2E. Saliakas
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
FC St. Pauli · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 3–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins1 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–2FC St. Pauli
- 11 Jan 2025FC St. Pauli0–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 5.29 | 2.86 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 57% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 5.29 | 2.86 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 57% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.17 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 9.50 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 4.85 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 8.66 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.70 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.31
Red cards0.33league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 44%
Fouls20.7league 22.8
Penalties0.67league 0.41
Home wins33%league 41%
Eintracht FrankfurtNo previous matches with this referee.
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Nov 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt7 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
FC St. Pauli7 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 26 · conceded 29
2
6
0-15
6
1
16-30
8
7
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
