Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 43 pts · 31 played
LDWLD
1–2Full time
Hamburger SV
15th · 31 pts · 31 played
LDLLL
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were clear favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7 days of rest, Hamburger SV 6.9 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eintracht Frankfurt63%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV17%
Eintracht Frankfurt55%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV20%
Eintracht Frankfurt63%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV17%
Eintracht Frankfurt55%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV23%
Eintracht Frankfurt61%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV18%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 76
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
54
AttackIn forecast
37
37
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
68%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.84
ShotsContext
11.55
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
38%
On target shareContext
39%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
7.69
70%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.12
12.42
Shots allowedContext
14.26
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.14
BlocksContext
3.60
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
61%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
491
PassesContext
383
414
Accurate passesContext
310
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.55
FoulsContext
11.65
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
12.61
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.31
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
41%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
70%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.10
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.56
BlocksContext
3.90
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
77%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
506
PassesContext
339
441
Accurate passesContext
264
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.78
7.90
FoulsContext
10.60
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km504 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel392 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 504 km | 190 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
4R. Koch
15E. Skhiri
5A. Amenda
25A. Kalimuendo
6O. Højlund
16H. Larsson
42C. Uzun
7A. Knauff
9J. Burkardt
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
25J. Torunarigha
24N. Capaldo
23A. Grønbæk
6A. Sambi Lokonga
21N. Remberg
18B. Jatta
11R. Königsdörffer
9R. Glatzel
20Fábio Vieira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Hamburger SV+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-5
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.53
Hamburger SV · Away
0.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-9
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 HL 0–6 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | L 1–3 AW 3–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 42 of 90 · 1.40 per game | 30 of 90 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Eintracht Frankfurt wins1 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Hamburger SV1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.87 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 3.68 | 2.71 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 55% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 61% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 5.59 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 9.42 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.71 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 15/31 | 71% 22/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 10/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 10.56 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.71
Red cards0.24league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 20.3
Penalties0.30league 0.37
Home wins38%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt10 with this referee
Record3-2-5
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D19 Oct 25A · SC Freiburg2–23
- L12 Sep 25A · Bayer Leverkusen1–33
- W29 Mar 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–01
- L13 Apr 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–33
- W27 May 23H · SC Freiburg2–14
Hamburger SV3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D4 Apr 26H · FC Augsburg1–13
- D28 Sep 25A · Union Berlin0–03
- L23 May 22H · Hertha BSC0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt31 games · scored 56 · conceded 58
4
8
0-15
11
8
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
7
46-60
9
9
61-75
11
19
76-90
Hamburger SV31 games · scored 34 · conceded 50
2
4
0-15
4
10
16-30
10
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
11
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
