Bundesliga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 14:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main
Eintracht Frankfurt 7th · 43 pts · 31 played
1–2Full time
Hamburger SV 15th · 31 pts · 31 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Eintracht Frankfurt63.2%fair odds 1.58
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.12
Hamburger SV17.3%fair odds 5.78
Expected goals2.36 – 1.18total 3.55
Likeliest score2–19.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Eintracht Frankfurt

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · Hamburger SV →0123456+
03.33.02.00.80.20.10.0
16.48.54.81.90.60.10.0
28.09.55.62.20.70.20.0
36.37.54.41.80.50.10.0
43.74.42.61.00.30.10.0
51.82.11.20.50.10.00.0
6+1.01.20.70.30.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.5%10.50
  • 1–18.5%11.79
  • 2–08.0%12.42
  • 3–17.5%13.33
  • 1–06.4%15.67
  • 3–06.3%15.77
  • 2–25.6%17.75
  • 1–24.8%20.98
  • 3–24.4%22.52
  • 4–14.4%22.55

Winning margin

22.9% Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+ fair 4.37
18.7% Eintracht Frankfurt by 2 fair 5.34
21.5% Eintracht Frankfurt by 1 fair 4.64
19.5% Draw fair 5.12
10.6% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 9.46
4.7% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 21.31
2.0% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 48.95

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
9%1
19%2
21%3
19%4
28%5+

Eintracht Frankfurt goals

9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+

Hamburger SV goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win 63.2% 61.2% +2.0 pp
Draw 19.5% 20.8% -1.3 pp
Hamburger SV win 17.3% 18.0% -0.7 pp
Over 2.5 68.8% 64.0% +4.8 pp
Both teams score 63.3% 60.1% +3.2 pp
Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt 2.36 2.18 +0.18
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.18 1.12 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Eintracht Frankfurt win63.2%1.58
  • Draw19.5%5.12
  • Hamburger SV win17.3%5.78
  • Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw82.7%1.21
  • Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or Hamburger SV80.5%1.24
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw36.8%2.72
  • Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt78.5%1.27
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV21.5%4.65

Goals

  • Over 0.596.7%1.03
  • Over 1.587.3%1.15
  • Over 2.568.8%1.45
  • Over 3.547.3%2.11
  • Over 4.528.3%3.53
  • Under 1.512.7%7.89
  • Under 2.531.2%3.20
  • Under 3.552.7%1.90

Both teams to score

  • Yes63.3%1.58
  • No36.7%2.72
  • Yes and over 2.554.8%1.83
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes35.9%2.79
  • Draw and yes16.2%6.17
  • Hamburger SV win and yes11.2%8.92

Team goals

  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.590.6%1.10
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.568.4%1.46
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.542.1%2.38
  • Hamburger SV over 0.569.4%1.44
  • Hamburger SV over 1.533.1%3.02
  • Hamburger SV over 2.511.7%8.55
  • Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet30.6%3.27
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet9.4%10.63
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil27.3%3.66
  • Hamburger SV win to nil6.1%16.40

Handicap

  • Eintracht Frankfurt −1.541.6%2.40
  • Eintracht Frankfurt −2.522.9%4.37
  • Hamburger SV +1.558.4%1.71
  • Hamburger SV +2.577.1%1.30
  • Hamburger SV −1.56.7%14.85
  • Eintracht Frankfurt +1.593.3%1.07

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored279 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right61.3% BTTS called right58.8%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3738.2%35.1%
40–50%8845.0%46.6%
50–60%7355.1%60.3%
60–70%4264.8%69.0%
70–80%2774.1%77.8%
80%+1286.6%83.3%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 232 of 279 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55030.5484
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%56.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 232 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 279 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.