Elche vs Celta Vigo – 28 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 28 · 15:15 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 7th · 10 pts · 6 played DWDWD

2–1Full time

Celta Vigo 14th · 5 pts · 6 played DDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 40). Elche had 2.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 2.8 and had to travel 811 km.

Away travel811 kmRest days2.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Elche37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.31

Elche36%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Elche36%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.29

Elche30%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.46

Elche37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.36

Over 2.5 49% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 29

Team strength

Elche

Celta Vigo

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

39 AttackIn forecast 36

51 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Celta Vigo

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 83%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 11.83

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 34%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

63% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.50 Shots allowedContext 10.67

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17

2.83 BlocksContext 2.33

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

75% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

529 PassesContext 533

461 Accurate passesContext 465

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.33 FoulsContext 11.00

17.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

100% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.10 ShotsContext 12.40

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

34% On target shareContext 34%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

68% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.56 BlocksContext 3.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

77% Save rateContext 74%

59% PossessionIn forecast 54%

494 PassesContext 500

419 Accurate passesContext 430

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.50 FoulsContext 11.00

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,025 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel811 km4,067 km in 14d

Schedule load30%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Sep	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	811 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,025 km	4,067 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1M. Dituro(G)

3Adrià Pedrosa 6Bigas 22D. Affengruber 15Alvaro Núñez 17Josan

14Aleix Febas 18John Nwankwo 11Germán Valera

9André Silva 10Rafa Mir

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 24Carlos Domínguez 29Yoel Lago 3Óscar Mingueza

6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 16Miguel Román

23Hugo Álvarez 7Borja Iglesias 15Bryan Zaragoza

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Celta Vigo-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.33

Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Elche	Celta Vigo
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Elche wins1 draws4 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 50%

26 Apr 2023Celta Vigo1–0Elche
6 Jan 2023Elche0–1Celta Vigo
15 May 2022Celta Vigo1–0Elche
3 Oct 2021Elche1–0Celta Vigo
12 Feb 2021Celta Vigo3–1Elche
6 Nov 2020Elche1–1Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.83
Conceded per game	0.83	1.17
Match goals	2.17	2.00	2.65
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	17%	0%	49%
Over 3.5	17%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	83%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	6	6

	Elche	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.86
Conceded per game	0.83	1.29
Match goals	2.17	2.14	2.65
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	17%	14%	49%
Over 3.5	17%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	86%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	14%
Games	6	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	6.50
Corners conceded	3.67	3.67
Match total	6.17	10.17	9.59
Over 8.5	17% 1/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.17	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.17	3.50	4.22
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6

	Elche	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.70
Corners conceded	5.50	4.90
Match total	9.50	10.60	9.59
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.40	4.20	4.22
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.45league 3.94

Red cards0.31league 0.26

Cards 5+59%league 42%

Fouls26.0league 24.7

Penalties0.41league 0.29

Home wins48%league 45%

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L21 Oct 23H · Atletico Madrid0–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.