Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Girona. Elche had 8.7 days of rest, Girona 6.7 and had to travel 511 km.
Away travel511 kmRest days8.7 · 6.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche46%
Draw27%
Girona27%
Elche43%
Draw27%
Girona30%
Elche44%
Draw27%
Girona29%
Elche38%
Draw28%
Girona34%
Elche45%
Draw27%
Girona28%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Elche
Girona
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
39
AttackIn forecast
49
51
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheGirona
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
79%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.79
ShotsContext
9.14
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
36%
On target shareContext
40%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
65%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.30
12.71
Shots allowedContext
17.36
4.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
3.64
BlocksContext
3.93
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
68%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
523
PassesContext
416
455
Accurate passesContext
350
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.50
FoulsContext
10.57
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.60
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
41%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
65%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.60
Shots allowedContext
17.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.00
BlocksContext
4.20
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
67%
Save rateContext
77%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
531
PassesContext
411
463
Accurate passesContext
347
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.20
FoulsContext
11.80
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km692 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel511 km1,819 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 511 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 692 km | 1,819 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
15Alvaro Núñez
39Héctor Fort
10Rafa Mir
19G. Diangana
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
21Bryan Gil
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
10Y. Asprilla
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+2.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Girona-1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-0
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 0.71
Girona · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 33 · 1.18 per game | 9 of 33 · 0.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Elche wins0 draws2 Girona wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 16 Apr 2023Girona2–0Elche
- 8 Nov 2022Elche1–2Girona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.79 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Elche | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.58 | |
| Match total | 7.71 | 10.33 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 5/14 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 3/14 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 2/14 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Elche | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.50 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.71league 4.06
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+29%league 46%
Fouls25.7league 24.6
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins86%league 47%
Elche2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Nov 25A · Barcelona1–31
- W21 Sep 25H · Oviedo1–02
GironaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche14 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Girona14 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
4
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
