Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 43). Absences weigh more on Villarreal. Elche had 13 days of rest, Villarreal 13.1 and had to travel 193 km.
Away travel193 kmRest days13 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Elche29%
Draw27%
Villarreal44%
Elche27%
Draw26%
Villarreal47%
Elche27%
Draw27%
Villarreal45%
Elche23%
Draw26%
Villarreal51%
Elche28%
Draw26%
Villarreal46%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 31
Team strength
Elche
Villarreal
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
39
AttackIn forecast
76
51
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheVillarreal
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
82%
Scored inContext
88%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.00
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.94
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.59
Shots in the boxContext
8.81
66%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.17
OffsidesContext
3.64
12.76
Shots allowedContext
11.88
4.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.47
BlocksContext
4.64
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
73%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
512
PassesContext
416
446
Accurate passesContext
350
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.94
FoulsContext
11.88
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.80
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
65%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.25
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.90
BlocksContext
3.56
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
74%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
497
PassesContext
409
430
Accurate passesContext
341
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.40
FoulsContext
13.10
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel193 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 13.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 193 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
16Martim Neto
15Alvaro Núñez
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
4Rafa Marín
26Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+1.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-0
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 0.56
Villarreal · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 19 of 45 · 1.27 per game | 32 of 45 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Elche wins2 draws2 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 4 Feb 2023Elche3–1Villarreal
- 4 Sep 2022Villarreal4–0Elche
- 16 Jan 2022Elche1–0Villarreal
- 22 Sep 2021Villarreal4–1Elche
- 6 Feb 2021Elche2–2Villarreal
- 6 Dec 2020Villarreal0–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.88 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 44% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 13% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Elche | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.18 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 7.18 | 9.08 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 6/17 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 3/17 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 2/17 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.38 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Elche | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.34 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 4.12
Red cards0.29league 0.27
Cards 5+58%league 45%
Fouls27.2league 24.5
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins32%league 47%
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D7 Nov 25H · Real Sociedad1–11
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W20 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–12
- W10 May 25A · Girona1–03
- W11 May 24H · Sevilla3–23
- D3 Dec 23A · Sevilla1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche17 games · scored 23 · conceded 20
3
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
9
76-90
Villarreal16 games · scored 31 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
6
16-30
6
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
8
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
