Elche
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Elche28.7%fair odds 3.48
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.65
Villarreal43.9%fair odds 2.28
Expected goals1.13 – 1.45total 2.58
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Elche ↓ · Villarreal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Elche goals, columns Villarreal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.65
- 0–110.4%9.65
- 1–29.0%11.10
- 0–08.3%12.12
- 0–28.0%12.51
- 1–07.9%12.66
- 2–17.0%14.30
- 2–25.1%19.71
- 2–04.8%20.74
- 1–34.4%22.95
Winning margin
3.6%
Elche by 3+
fair 28.04
8.0%
Elche by 2
fair 12.43
17.1%
Elche by 1
fair 5.85
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.65
22.2%
Villarreal by 1
fair 4.51
13.3%
Villarreal by 2
fair 7.49
8.3%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 11.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Elche goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Villarreal goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 28.7% | 28.2% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.3% | +1.1 pp |
| Villarreal win | 43.9% | 45.5% | -1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.6% | 51.6% | -4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.4% | 55.4% | -2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Elche | 1.13 | 1.18 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.45 | 1.56 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Elche win28.7%3.48
- Draw27.4%3.65
- Villarreal win43.9%2.28
- Double chance Elche or draw56.1%1.78
- Double chance Elche or Villarreal72.6%1.38
- Double chance Villarreal or draw71.3%1.40
- Draw no bet Elche39.5%2.53
- Draw no bet Villarreal60.5%1.65
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.5%1.36
- Over 2.547.6%2.10
- Over 3.525.9%3.86
- Over 4.511.9%8.37
- Under 1.526.5%3.77
- Under 2.552.4%1.91
- Under 3.574.1%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes52.4%1.91
- No47.6%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.3%2.54
- Elche win and yes13.5%7.40
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- Villarreal win and yes19.7%5.07
Team goals
- Elche over 0.567.6%1.48
- Elche over 1.531.1%3.22
- Elche over 2.510.5%9.52
- Villarreal over 0.576.6%1.31
- Villarreal over 1.542.6%2.35
- Villarreal over 2.517.9%5.59
- Elche clean sheet23.4%4.27
- Villarreal clean sheet32.4%3.09
- Elche win to nil15.2%6.59
- Villarreal win to nil24.2%4.14
Handicap
- Elche −1.511.6%8.61
- Elche −2.53.6%28.04
- Villarreal +1.588.4%1.13
- Villarreal +2.596.4%1.04
- Villarreal −1.521.7%4.61
- Elche +1.578.3%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored174
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 54.5% | 65.6% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.6% | 65.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.7% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 143 of 174 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5548 | 0.5533 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.2% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.0% | 58.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 143 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 174 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.