Süper Lig Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 17 · 12:00 Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Trabzonspor 4th · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel179 kmRest days29 · 26.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Erzurumspor FK—%
Draw—%
Trabzonspor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Erzurum)

Forecast from 2 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Erzurumspor FK and Trabzonspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Erzurumspor FKTrabzonspor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
17 AttackIn forecast 54
38 DefenceIn forecast 48
56 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Trabzonspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Erzurumspor FKTrabzonspor
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.67
50% Scored inContext 88%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
9.43 ShotsContext 13.25
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63
35% On target shareContext 50%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
63% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 17%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.57
11.29 Shots allowedContext 13.50
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.20 BlocksContext 2.86
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38
75% Save rateContext 88%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
409 PassesContext 430
341 Accurate passesContext 365
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.67 Team ratingContext 7.12
11.71 FoulsContext 10.38
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 16.13
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
50% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
9.43 ShotsContext 13.25
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63
35% On target shareContext 50%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
63% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 17%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.57
11.29 Shots allowedContext 13.50
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.20 BlocksContext 3.22
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38
75% Save rateContext 88%
46% PossessionIn forecast 52%
409 PassesContext 430
341 Accurate passesContext 365
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.67 Team ratingContext 7.12
11.71 FoulsContext 10.00
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 16.30
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Erzurumspor FK
Rest29 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts
Trabzonspor
Rest26.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 12 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W19 OctH · Besiktas2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Samsunspor3–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Galatasaray4–00.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Konyaspor0–11.5 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Genclerbirligi5–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Erzurumspor FK Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match29Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Dec26.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km179 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu
Trabzonspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Besiktas (H) 2–0, 19 Oct
24A. Onana(G)
55Sidny Lopes Cabral 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho 11O. Tufan
58D. Şimşir 7E. Muçi 10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Trabzonspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Erzurumspor FK · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Trabzonspor · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentErzurumspor FKTrabzonspor
Samsunspor W 1–0 H W 3–0 A
Besiktas L 0–3 A W 2–0 H
Konyaspor W 1–0 H L 0–1 A
Genclerbirligi D 1–1 A W 5–0 H
Galatasaray L 0–4 H W 4–0 H
Amed L 0–3 A L 1–2 A
Points7 of 18 · 1.17 per game12 of 18 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Erzurumspor FKTrabzonsporForecast
Scored per game 0.632.25
Conceded per game 1.380.63
Match goals 2.002.88
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 38%63%
Over 3.5 13%25%
Both teams scored 13%38%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%13%
Games88
Erzurumspor FKTrabzonsporForecast
Scored per game 0.631.80
Conceded per game 1.381.00
Match goals 2.002.80
Over 1.5 63%80%
Over 2.5 38%60%
Over 3.5 13%30%
Both teams scored 13%30%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 50%30%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Erzurumspor FKTrabzonsporLeague
Corners
Corners won3.435.13
Corners conceded3.143.25
Match total6.578.389.12
Over 8.50% 0/750% 4/8
Over 9.50% 0/713% 1/8
Over 10.50% 0/713% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.382.13
Opponent cards2.132.88
Match total3.515.014.04
Over 3.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 4.550% 4/863% 5/8
Erzurumspor FKTrabzonsporLeague
Corners
Corners won3.435.20
Corners conceded3.144.00
Match total6.579.209.12
Over 8.50% 0/760% 6/10
Over 9.50% 0/730% 3/10
Over 10.50% 0/730% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.382.30
Opponent cards2.132.90
Match total3.515.204.04
Over 3.550% 4/880% 8/10
Over 4.550% 4/870% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Trabzonspor8 games · scored 18 · conceded 5
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
5 1 0-15
3 3 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Fenerbahce Amed Jan 1712:00 Goztepe Besiktas Jan 1712:00 Alanyaspor Istanbul Basaksehir Jan 1712:00 Rizespor Genclerbirligi Jan 1712:00 Erzurumspor FK Trabzonspor Jan 1712:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Galatasaray Jan 1712:00 Eyüpspor Samsunspor Jan 1712:00 Çorum FK Konyaspor Jan 1712:00 Kocaelispor Kasimpasa Jan 1712:00