Süper Lig Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 19 · 13:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,049 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Istanbul Basaksehir—%
Draw—%
Erzurumspor FK—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Istanbul Basaksehir and Erzurumspor FK. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FK
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 27
32 AttackIn forecast 17
35 DefenceIn forecast 38
33 Form indexContext 56
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—
Defense risk—

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FK
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 0.82
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
75% Scored inContext 50%
38% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.88 ShotsContext 9.43
4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29
34% On target shareContext 35%
6.88 Shots in the boxContext 6.29
54% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.29
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.50 BlocksContext 2.20
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
70% Save rateContext 75%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
451 PassesContext 409
383 Accurate passesContext 341
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.67
13.88 FoulsContext 11.71
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86
2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.82
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
80% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.30 ShotsContext 9.43
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29
34% On target shareContext 35%
7.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.29
59% Box shareContext 63%
14% ConversionContext 8%
1.80 OffsidesContext 1.50
11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.29
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.30 BlocksContext 2.20
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
72% Save rateContext 75%
50% PossessionIn forecast 46%
431 PassesContext 409
364 Accurate passesContext 341
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.67
14.20 FoulsContext 11.71
11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts
Erzurumspor FK
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,049 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Istanbul Basaksehir Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 13 Dec7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,049 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,940 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2929

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok
Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Istanbul Basaksehir Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
3-1-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.00
Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentIstanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FK
Konyaspor D 0–0 A W 1–0 H
Genclerbirligi W 4–0 H D 1–1 A
Amed L 0–5 A L 0–3 A
Galatasaray L 2–3 H L 0–4 H
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FKForecast
Scored per game 1.500.63
Conceded per game 1.501.38
Match goals 3.002.00
Over 1.5 88%63%
Over 2.5 63%38%
Over 3.5 38%13%
Both teams scored 50%13%
Clean sheets 38%50%
Failed to score 25%50%
Games88
Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FKForecast
Scored per game 1.700.63
Conceded per game 1.301.38
Match goals 3.002.00
Over 1.5 90%63%
Over 2.5 70%38%
Over 3.5 30%13%
Both teams scored 50%13%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 20%50%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FKLeague
Corners
Corners won4.253.43
Corners conceded3.883.14
Match total8.136.579.12
Over 8.550% 4/80% 0/7
Over 9.525% 2/80% 0/7
Over 10.513% 1/80% 0/7
Cards
Cards2.501.38
Opponent cards1.882.13
Match total4.383.514.04
Over 3.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 4.538% 3/850% 4/8
Istanbul BasaksehirErzurumspor FKLeague
Corners
Corners won3.903.43
Corners conceded4.203.14
Match total8.106.579.12
Over 8.550% 5/100% 0/7
Over 9.520% 2/100% 0/7
Over 10.510% 1/100% 0/7
Cards
Cards2.401.38
Opponent cards1.902.13
Match total4.303.514.04
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Istanbul Basaksehir8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

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Kasimpasa Fenerbahce Dec 1817:00 Amed Goztepe Dec 1817:00 Konyaspor Eyüpspor Dec 1910:30 Istanbul Basaksehir Erzurumspor FK Dec 1913:00 Galatasaray Alanyaspor Dec 1916:00 Genclerbirligi Çorum FK Dec 2010:30 Samsunspor Gazişehir Gaziantep Dec 2013:00 Besiktas Rizespor Dec 2016:00 Trabzonspor Kocaelispor Dec 2117:00