Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel762 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Espanyol—%
Draw—%
Malaga—%
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
Forecast from 27 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Espanyol and Malaga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Malaga
−0.84
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.84xG against1.68
-
Alert
Malaga
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EspanyolMalaga
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
36
AttackIn forecast
28
51
DefenceIn forecast
31
31
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolMalaga
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
89%
Scored inContext
56%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
12.67
ShotsContext
11.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
29%
On target shareContext
27%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
57%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.11
Shots allowedContext
14.89
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
75%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
376
PassesContext
481
305
Accurate passesContext
417
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
16.00
FoulsContext
11.56
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
31%
On target shareContext
28%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
57%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
2.78
BlocksContext
3.70
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
73%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
379
PassesContext
474
308
Accurate passesContext
408
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.50
FoulsContext
10.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,006 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Malaga
DLLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel762 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Malaga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 762 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,006 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Malaga
Last XI · not confirmed
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
15Ángel Recio
20F. Calero Villa
31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez
8Carlos Dotor
23Izan Merino
10David Larrubia
9Chupe
21Adrián Niño
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Malaga
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Malaga · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | L 2–5 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Espanyol wins1 draws0 Malaga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Oct 2026Malaga1–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Espanyol | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 56% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 44% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 10.45 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.77 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Espanyol | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.80 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.90 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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