La Liga Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 11 · 16:00 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel317 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Osasuna—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Iruñea)

Forecast from 27 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Osasuna and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OsasunaReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
50 AttackIn forecast 89
50 DefenceIn forecast 85
31 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OsasunaReal Madrid
1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 2.41
1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
67% Scored inContext 89%
33% Clean sheetsContext 22%
10.78 ShotsContext 17.56
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22
40% On target shareContext 41%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 12.33
64% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.63 OffsidesContext 2.13
13.22 Shots allowedContext 12.78
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
3.89 BlocksContext 3.44
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
51% Save rateContext 73%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
390 PassesContext 528
316 Accurate passesContext 476
81% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.54 Team ratingContext 7.17
14.67 FoulsContext 8.44
12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11
2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
10.80 ShotsContext 16.90
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
41% On target shareContext 43%
7.56 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
64% Box shareContext 71%
9% ConversionContext 16%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20
3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
3.70 BlocksContext 3.80
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
53% Save rateContext 75%
46% PossessionIn forecast 50%
373 PassesContext 501
298 Accurate passesContext 446
80% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.54 Team ratingContext 7.13
15.20 FoulsContext 8.90
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,436 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel317 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Osasuna Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr7La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,436 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Osasuna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
0.80
Conceded
0.60
Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentOsasunaReal Madrid
Real Betis L 2–5 A L 0–1 A
Rayo Vallecano D 1–1 H W 4–1 H
Atletico Madrid L 0–4 A L 1–2 A
Espanyol L 0–2 H W 2–1 A
Points1 of 12 · 0.25 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Osasuna wins3 draws6 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.70 – 2.10 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets10% · 50%
  • 21 Feb 2026Osasuna2–1Real Madrid
  • 19 Aug 2025Real Madrid1–0Osasuna
  • 15 Feb 2025Osasuna1–1Real Madrid
  • 9 Nov 2024Real Madrid4–0Osasuna
  • 16 Mar 2024Osasuna2–4Real Madrid
  • 7 Oct 2023Real Madrid4–0Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OsasunaReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.112.56
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 3.113.56
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 44%78%
Over 3.5 33%56%
Both teams scored 44%67%
Clean sheets 33%22%
Failed to score 33%11%
Games99
OsasunaReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.002.70
Conceded per game 1.901.20
Match goals 2.903.90
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 40%80%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 40%70%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OsasunaReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.25
Corners conceded4.504.25
Match total8.5010.509.91
Over 8.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 10.538% 3/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.672.33
Opponent cards2.002.67
Match total4.675.004.73
Over 3.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 4.556% 5/967% 6/9
OsasunaReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.30
Corners conceded4.225.00
Match total8.2211.309.91
Over 8.533% 3/970% 7/10
Over 9.533% 3/970% 7/10
Over 10.533% 3/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.602.20
Opponent cards1.902.50
Match total4.504.704.73
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Levante Apr 1116:00 Valencia Getafe Apr 1116:00 Villarreal Athletic Club Apr 1116:00 Sevilla Deportivo La Coruna Apr 1116:00 Celta Vigo Elche Apr 1116:00 Espanyol Malaga Apr 1116:00 Alaves Real Betis Apr 1116:00 Osasuna Real Madrid Apr 1116:00 Rayo Vallecano Real Sociedad Apr 1116:00 Racing Santander Barcelona Apr 1116:00