Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Espanyol were slight favourites.
Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Espanyol had 8.3 days of rest, Oviedo 5.1 and had to travel 688 km.
Away travel688 kmRest days8.3 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Espanyol45%
Draw28%
Oviedo27%
Espanyol58%
Draw24%
Oviedo19%
Espanyol45%
Draw28%
Oviedo27%
Espanyol38%
Draw29%
Oviedo33%
Espanyol47%
Draw26%
Oviedo27%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 39
Team strength
Espanyol
Oviedo
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
36
AttackIn forecast
23
51
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolOviedo
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.62
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
81%
Scored inContext
38%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.08
ShotsContext
9.38
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.96
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
64%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.45
12.31
Shots allowedContext
14.73
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.77
3.60
BlocksContext
3.77
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
70%
Save rateContext
74%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
351
PassesContext
371
279
Accurate passesContext
302
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.27
FoulsContext
12.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.44
BlocksContext
3.70
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
59%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
359
PassesContext
349
286
Accurate passesContext
273
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.60
FoulsContext
13.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km835 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel688 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 5.1La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 688 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 835 km | 744 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
24T. Dolan
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
16C. Ngonge
14Ramon Terrats
19Kike García
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
12Dani Calvo
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
21L. Ilić
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Oviedo-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.38
Oviedo · Away
0.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-9
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 2.23
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 75 · 1.32 per game | 17 of 75 · 0.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Espanyol wins0 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Oct 2025Oviedo0–2Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.27 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 38% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 31% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 62% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Espanyol | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.60 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.23 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 5.73 | |
| Match total | 8.61 | 9.58 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 3.57 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 14/26 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Espanyol | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.50 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 4.20
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+23%league 46%
Fouls24.2league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins49%league 47%
Espanyol1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 May 25A · Leganes2–32
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Jan 26H · Girona1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol26 games · scored 33 · conceded 39
5
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
10
31-45
10
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
10
7
76-90
Oviedo25 games · scored 16 · conceded 43
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
12
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
