Estac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel561 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Estac Troyes—%
Draw—%
Toulouse—%
Weather (Troyes)
Forecast from 9 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Toulouse. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Estac Troyes
5
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row -
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Estac TroyesToulouse
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
12
AttackIn forecast
45
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
7
Form indexContext
54
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Estac TroyesToulouse
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
43%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.29
ShotsContext
13.57
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
21%
On target shareContext
34%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
73%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.43
Shots allowedContext
14.43
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
55%
Save rateContext
65%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
359
PassesContext
500
287
Accurate passesContext
430
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.52
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.29
FoulsContext
15.43
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
25%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
64%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.10
BlocksContext
4.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
63%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
351
PassesContext
428
279
Accurate passesContext
366
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.10
FoulsContext
14.60
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
LLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km854 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Toulouse
LDWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel561 km1,582 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 561 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 854 km | 1,582 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Last XI · not confirmed
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Toulouse
Last XI · not confirmed
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Toulouse
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Toulouse · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lorient | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Estac Troyes wins0 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2023Toulouse4–1Estac Troyes
- 14 Aug 2022Estac Troyes0–3Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.29 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 30% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Estac Troyes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
61-75
1
5
76-90
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
