Rennes vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 17 · 16:00 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 13 pts · 7 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel427 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Rennes—%

Draw—%

Estac Troyes—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rennes)

Forecast from 2 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estac Troyes 5 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Rennes

Estac Troyes

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

63 AttackIn forecast 12

39 DefenceIn forecast 19

42 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estac Troyes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Estac Troyes

2.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

2.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

86% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

16.29 ShotsContext 14.29

6.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 21%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

65% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 5%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.33

15.29 Shots allowedContext 12.43

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

4.71 BlocksContext 3.00

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

63% Save rateContext 55%

51% PossessionIn forecast 39%

472 PassesContext 359

398 Accurate passesContext 287

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.52

13.57 FoulsContext 12.29

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 12.71

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.60 ShotsContext 12.10

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 25%

12.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

66% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.56

14.70 Shots allowedContext 13.90

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.89 BlocksContext 3.10

4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

68% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 39%

476 PassesContext 351

403 Accurate passesContext 279

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.61

12.40 FoulsContext 11.10

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes DLWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,594 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts

Estac Troyes LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel427 km639 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Apr	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	427 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,594 km	639 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Paris FC (A) 3–4, 18 Oct

30B. Samba(G)

95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

33P. Beach(G)

5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

29D. Karim 8M. Diop

23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estac Troyes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.25

Estac Troyes · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Estac Troyes
Paris FC	L 3–4 A	D 0–0 H
Marseille	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Angers	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Rennes wins2 draws0 Estac Troyes wins

Goals per game2.75 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

14 May 2023Rennes4–0Estac Troyes
4 Sep 2022Estac Troyes1–1Rennes
20 Feb 2022Rennes4–1Estac Troyes
31 Oct 2021Estac Troyes2–2Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Estac Troyes
Scored per game	2.14	0.71
Conceded per game	2.00	2.29
Match goals	4.14	3.00
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	43%
Over 3.5	71%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	14%	57%
Games	7	7

	Rennes	Estac Troyes
Scored per game	1.80	0.71
Conceded per game	1.80	2.29
Match goals	3.60	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	80%	43%
Over 3.5	60%	29%
Both teams scored	70%	43%
Clean sheets	20%	14%
Failed to score	20%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.83	6.50
Corners conceded	5.67	2.50
Match total	12.50	9.00	9.63
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.43	1.57
Opponent cards	2.43	1.29
Match total	4.86	2.86	3.47
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7

	Rennes	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	7.56	5.33
Corners conceded	5.11	4.78
Match total	12.67	10.11	9.63
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	2.50	1.60
Match total	4.50	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.