Estoril vs AVS – 13 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 13 · 15:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 16th · 2 pts · 4 played DLDL

3–1Full time

AVS 17th · 1 pts · 4 played LLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril were slight favourites.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 15). Estoril had 6.8 days of rest, AVS 13.9 and had to travel.

Rest days6.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Estoril54%

Draw26%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.95

Estoril54%

Draw25%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Estoril54%

Draw26%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.95

Estoril46%

Draw27%

AVS26%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.06

Estoril54%

Draw25%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Over 2.5 49% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa

Team strength

Estoril

AVS

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

21 AttackIn forecast 17

29 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

AVS

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

AVS

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

75% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.75 ShotsContext 9.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

31% On target shareContext 21%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.33

57% Box shareContext 46%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.75 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

59% Save rateContext 53%

55% PossessionIn forecast 42%

392 PassesContext 293

314 Accurate passesContext 217

80% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.75 FoulsContext 15.50

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 14.25

3.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.10 ShotsContext 9.90

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

38% On target shareContext 25%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

58% Box shareContext 57%

15% ConversionContext 7%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.56

10.60 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.78 BlocksContext 3.40

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

56% Save rateContext 56%

54% PossessionIn forecast 42%

411 PassesContext 294

329 Accurate passesContext 219

80% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.68

14.60 FoulsContext 15.10

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km462 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AVS

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	AVS
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Sep	13.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	462 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Joel Robles(G)

4Ferro 25F. Bacher 44K. Boma

24Pedro Amaral 7N. Lominadze 10J. Holsgrove 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

14Y. Begraoui

AVS Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

93Simão(G)

24Kiki 42C. Devenish 33Aderllan Santos 2Diogo Spencer

15Jaume Grau 27Ángel Algobia

14Ó. Perea 17Bruno Lourenço 11B. Akinsola

7Tómané

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

AVS Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AVS+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

AVS · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Estoril wins1 draws0 AVS wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 50%

4 Apr 2025AVS0–3Estoril
9 Nov 2024Estoril0–0AVS

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.75
Conceded per game	1.75	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.75	2.61
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	4	4

	Estoril	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.75
Conceded per game	1.75	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.75	2.61
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.33
Corners conceded	4.50	8.00
Match total	8.25	12.33	9.12
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	3.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.75	3.00
Match total	5.25	5.00	5.12
Over 3.5	100% 4/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4

	Estoril	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.78
Corners conceded	3.70	6.00
Match total	7.70	9.78	9.12
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	3.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	4.90	5.40	5.12
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.