Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Estoril. Estoril had 5.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 8 and had to travel.
Rest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estoril51%
Draw25%
Casa Pia24%
Estoril50%
Draw25%
Casa Pia25%
Estoril51%
Draw25%
Casa Pia24%
Estoril44%
Draw27%
Casa Pia30%
Estoril51%
Draw25%
Casa Pia24%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
RefereePedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
Team strength
Estoril
Casa Pia
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
13
29
DefenceIn forecast
25
10
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilCasa Pia
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.17
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.59
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
33%
Scored inContext
17%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.33
ShotsContext
10.17
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
34%
On target shareContext
26%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
61%
Box shareContext
58%
3%
ConversionContext
2%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.67
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.00
BlocksContext
6.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
64%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
401
PassesContext
347
323
Accurate passesContext
274
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.42
11.83
FoulsContext
11.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
50%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
58%
Box shareContext
61%
4%
ConversionContext
5%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.40
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.50
BlocksContext
5.22
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
419
PassesContext
309
345
Accurate passesContext
234
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.30
FoulsContext
13.10
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
LLLDL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km654 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
Casa Pia
LLLDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 654 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
21R. Jurišić
15Isma Sierra
6Xavi Sintes
2Ricard Sánchez
44M. Robin
10J. Holsgrove
9A. Camblan
12João Carvalho
11N. Omerović
14Y. Begraoui
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
95Ivan Mandić(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
3Kaly
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
98JP
70João Rêgo
11M. El Boukammiri
9Henrique Araújo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Casa Pia · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | L 0–7 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Estoril wins4 draws1 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.88
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 38%
- 7 Mar 2026Estoril0–0Casa Pia
- 3 Oct 2025Casa Pia2–2Estoril
- 29 Apr 2025Casa Pia1–3Estoril
- 15 Dec 2024Estoril0–2Casa Pia
- 8 Apr 2024Casa Pia0–0Estoril
- 10 Nov 2023Estoril4–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.67 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 83% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Estoril | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.17 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.67 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Estoril | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.44 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.90 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estoril6 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Casa Pia6 games · scored 1 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
