Estoril vs Estrela – 11 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 11 · 18:45 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril

1–1Full time

Estrela

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril were slight favourites.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 16). Estoril had ? days of rest, Estrela ? and had to travel 15 km.

Away travel15 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Estoril54%

Draw25%

Estrela20%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.94

Estoril55%

Draw24%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.01

Estoril54%

Draw25%

Estrela20%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.94

Estoril47%

Draw27%

Estrela26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.06

Estoril55%

Draw24%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Over 2.5 49% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 7

Team strength

Estoril

Estrela

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

21 AttackIn forecast 24

29 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Estrela

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

80% Scored inContext 30%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.20 ShotsContext 9.50

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

42% On target shareContext 27%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

57% Box shareContext 55%

19% ConversionContext 4%

2.17 OffsidesContext 3.00

9.10 Shots allowedContext 14.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.22 BlocksContext 4.11

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

59% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

426 PassesContext 300

341 Accurate passesContext 223

80% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.84

15.90 FoulsContext 16.00

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 3.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel15 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	15 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 44K. Boma

55Tiago Parente 10J. Holsgrove 7N. Lominadze 22Pedro Carvalho

12João Carvalho 14Y. Begraoui 99R. Guitane

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Estrela Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

79A. Chernev 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick

25Nilton Varela 19Paulo Moreira 8Robinho 55Sidny Lopes Cabral

11Jovane Cabral 89J. Gastao

13Alan Godoy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Estrela+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home No home games yet this season.

Estrela · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Estoril wins0 draws1 Estrela wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

17 May 2025Estoril4–0Estrela
5 Jan 2025Estrela2–4Estoril
4 Feb 2024Estoril1–0Estrela
25 Aug 2023Estrela2–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.62
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Estoril	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.62
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.67
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.83
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Estoril	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.00
Corners conceded	3.90	5.60
Match total	7.60	9.60	9.67
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	4.20	5.50	4.83
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 4.83

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+43%league 50%

Fouls29.1league 26.8

Penalties0.29league 0.33

Home wins43%league 67%

Estoril3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D16 Mar 25A · Arouca1–11
W5 Jan 25A · Estrela4–21
D25 Aug 24H · GIL Vicente0–04

Estrela1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Jan 25H · Estoril2–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.