Estoril vs Famalicao – 26 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 26 · 15:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 10th · 37 pts · 30 played WLLLL

0–1Full time

Famalicao 5th · 48 pts · 30 played WWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Estoril had 5.8 days of rest, Famalicao 6.8 and had to travel 310 km.

Away travel310 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Estoril26%

Draw28%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.46

Estoril36%

Draw27%

Famalicao36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Estoril26%

Draw28%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.46

Estoril21%

Draw26%

Famalicao53%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.64

Estoril26%

Draw27%

Famalicao47%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.52

Over 2.5 46% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 38

Team strength

Estoril

Famalicao

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

21 AttackIn forecast 24

29 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Famalicao

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

70% Scored inContext 73%

17% Clean sheetsContext 47%

11.17 ShotsContext 12.00

3.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.39

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.34 Shots in the boxContext 8.17

64% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 11%

1.54 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.97 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.45 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

2.74 BlocksContext 2.59

2.82 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.35

62% Save rateContext 80%

53% PossessionIn forecast 51%

431 PassesContext 393

353 Accurate passesContext 322

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.53 FoulsContext 15.77

12.13 Fouls sufferedContext 16.27

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.80 ShotsContext 12.20

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

33% On target shareContext 39%

6.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

63% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.57

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.67 BlocksContext 2.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

66% Save rateContext 87%

56% PossessionIn forecast 52%

475 PassesContext 413

393 Accurate passesContext 343

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.80 FoulsContext 13.20

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 16.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km623 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel310 km36 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Apr	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	623 km	36 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Turk(G)

4Ferro 5A. Tsoungui 25F. Bacher

24Pedro Amaral 10J. Holsgrove 8Xeka 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

14Y. Begraoui

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.53points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-4
Scored: 1.87
Conceded: 1.47

Famalicao · Away 1.40points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 5-6-4
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Famalicao
Moreirense	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
FC Porto	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Arouca	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Rio Ave	L 1–2 HW 4–0 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Nacional	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H
AVS	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Tondela	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Santa Clara	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Guimaraes	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Estrela	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Benfica	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 A
Alverca	W 4–1 H	L 0–1 A
SC Braga	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Points	37 of 87 · 1.28 per game	45 of 87 · 1.55 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Estoril wins1 draws3 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.43 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets29% · 43%

14 Dec 2025Famalicao4–0Estoril
12 Apr 2025Famalicao3–0Estoril
1 Dec 2024Estoril2–1Famalicao
28 Apr 2024Estoril1–0Famalicao
17 Dec 2023Famalicao1–1Estoril
29 Jan 2023Famalicao1–0Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.27
Conceded per game	1.70	0.90
Match goals	3.40	2.17	2.51
Over 1.5	77%	57%
Over 2.5	67%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	57%	23%
Both teams scored	57%	37%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	47%
Failed to score	30%	27%
Games	30	30

	Estoril	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	0.80
Match goals	2.80	2.20	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.76
Corners conceded	4.85	4.93
Match total	9.18	9.69	9.35
Over 8.5	52% 14/27	59% 17/29
Over 9.5	41% 11/27	45% 13/29
Over 10.5	33% 9/27	41% 12/29
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.67
Opponent cards	2.13	2.40
Match total	4.63	5.07	5.07
Over 3.5	83% 25/30	70% 21/30
Over 4.5	53% 16/30	57% 17/30

	Estoril	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.78
Corners conceded	5.11	5.00
Match total	9.00	9.78	9.35
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.80
Opponent cards	1.70	2.90
Match total	3.70	5.70	5.07
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 4.81

Red cards0.18league 0.23

Cards 5+42%league 57%

Fouls28.6league 26.8

Penalties0.34league 0.42

Home wins55%league 41%

Estoril7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 4

L14 Dec 25A · Famalicao0–41
L21 Sep 25A · GIL Vicente0–22
W26 Oct 24H · Arouca4–14
L18 May 24A · Moreirense1–20
W10 Dec 23H · Chaves4–04

Famalicao7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

W25 Jan 26H · Tondela3–00
W14 Dec 25H · Estoril4–03
W10 Mar 25H · Rio Ave1–01
L30 Dec 24H · Santa Clara1–23
L29 Oct 23A · Estrela0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.