Estoril vs FC Porto – 12 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 29 Sun, Apr 12 · 20:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 7th · 37 pts · 28 played LDWLL

1–3Full time

FC Porto 1st · 73 pts · 28 played WDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. Estoril had 6.1 days of rest, FC Porto 3 and had to travel 280 km.

Away travel280 kmRest days6.1 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 2

Estoril15%

Draw23%

FC Porto62%

Expected goals 0.82 – 1.87

Estoril17%

Draw23%

FC Porto60%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.93

Estoril15%

Draw23%

FC Porto62%

Expected goals 0.82 – 1.87

Estoril11%

Draw20%

FC Porto69%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.09

Estoril15%

Draw22%

FC Porto62%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.93

Over 2.5 50% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 88

Team strength

Estoril

FC Porto

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

21 AttackIn forecast 74

29 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

FC Porto

1.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.46

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.58

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

71% Scored inContext 96%

18% Clean sheetsContext 64%

11.57 ShotsContext 13.82

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

35% On target shareContext 38%

7.46 Shots in the boxContext 9.21

64% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 15%

1.48 OffsidesContext 2.19

11.71 Shots allowedContext 9.11

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.28

2.76 BlocksContext 3.33

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.19

62% Save rateContext 87%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

428 PassesContext 443

351 Accurate passesContext 376

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.54 FoulsContext 13.57

11.96 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 13.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

35% On target shareContext 39%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

63% Box shareContext 61%

15% ConversionContext 15%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.60 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.67 BlocksContext 3.13

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

62% Save rateContext 87%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

452 PassesContext 394

378 Accurate passesContext 325

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.20 FoulsContext 11.90

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km533 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	533 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 5A. Tsoungui 2Ricard Sánchez

8Xeka 10J. Holsgrove 6Jandro Orellana

12João Carvalho

19André Lacximicant 14Y. Begraoui

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

77O. Pietuszewski 27D. Gül 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.64points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-3
Scored: 1.93
Conceded: 1.36

FC Porto · Away 2.64points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 12-1-1
Scored: 1.93
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estoril	FC Porto
Arouca	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H	W 3–1 HW 4–0 A
Rio Ave	L 1–2 HW 4–0 A	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
Nacional	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AW 4–0 H
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
GIL Vicente	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
AVS	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Tondela	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 A
Santa Clara	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Guimaraes	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Estrela	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Benfica	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Alverca	W 4–1 H	W 3–0 A
SC Braga	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Famalicao	L 0–4 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Moreirense	D 3–3 H	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A
Points	37 of 81 · 1.37 per game	70 of 81 · 2.59 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Estoril wins1 draws4 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.57 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets29% · 29%

30 Nov 2025FC Porto1–0Estoril
30 Mar 2025Estoril1–2FC Porto
3 Nov 2024FC Porto4–0Estoril
30 Mar 2024Estoril1–0FC Porto
3 Nov 2023FC Porto0–1Estoril
10 Mar 2023FC Porto3–2Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.79	2.00
Conceded per game	1.68	0.46
Match goals	3.46	2.46	2.68
Over 1.5	79%	71%
Over 2.5	68%	57%	50%
Over 3.5	57%	21%
Both teams scored	57%	36%	48%
Clean sheets	18%	64%
Failed to score	29%	4%
Games	28	28

	Estoril	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.90
Conceded per game	1.80	0.80
Match goals	3.50	2.70	2.68
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	4.46	5.08
Corners conceded	4.85	3.32
Match total	9.31	8.40	9.32
Over 8.5	54% 14/26	48% 12/25
Over 9.5	42% 11/26	32% 8/25
Over 10.5	35% 9/26	20% 5/25
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.39
Opponent cards	2.25	2.93
Match total	4.75	5.32	5.08
Over 3.5	86% 24/28	79% 22/28
Over 4.5	57% 16/28	61% 17/28

	Estoril	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.70
Corners conceded	4.70	3.60
Match total	9.00	8.30	9.32
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	2.50	2.80
Match total	4.50	5.50	5.08
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 88 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.90league 4.80

Red cards0.22league 0.25

Cards 5+58%league 57%

Fouls28.3league 26.9

Penalties0.30league 0.43

Home wins40%league 41%

Estoril5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L15 Feb 26A · AVS0–32
L27 Sep 25H · Sporting CP0–14
W26 Jan 25H · Guimaraes1–03
L5 May 24A · Farense2–30
D17 Sep 22H · FC Porto1–18

FC Porto10 with this referee

Record5-3-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.9 Pens for · against2 · 3

D9 Feb 26H · Sporting CP1–12
W7 Dec 25A · Tondela2–01
W13 Sep 25H · Nacional1–02
L8 Mar 25A · SC Braga0–14
D7 Dec 24A · Famalicao1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.