Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Estoril had 6.8 days of rest, Moreirense 8 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days6.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Estoril41%
Draw28%
Moreirense31%
Estoril41%
Draw27%
Moreirense31%
Estoril41%
Draw28%
Moreirense31%
Estoril34%
Draw28%
Moreirense38%
Estoril41%
Draw27%
Moreirense31%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.49
- Matches 51
Team strength
Estoril
Moreirense
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
21
AttackIn forecast
17
29
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilMoreirense
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
67%
Scored inContext
83%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.75
ShotsContext
9.17
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.42
64%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.55
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.33
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
2.55
BlocksContext
3.45
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
60%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
405
PassesContext
388
322
Accurate passesContext
320
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.17
FoulsContext
14.42
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
9.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
29%
On target shareContext
36%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
66%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.10
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.56
BlocksContext
3.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
61%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
405
PassesContext
382
320
Accurate passesContext
314
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.70
FoulsContext
14.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 560 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
5A. Tsoungui
24Pedro Amaral
6Jandro Orellana
45Patrick de Paula
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
19André Lacximicant
14Y. Begraoui
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
3Michel
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
11Alan
8M. Stjepanović
15Vasco Sousa
78Landerson
95Guilherme Schettine
2Diogo Travassos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Arouca | W 4–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 8 of 27 · 0.89 per game | 15 of 27 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estoril wins2 draws2 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Moreirense2–2Estoril
- 28 Dec 2024Estoril2–2Moreirense
- 18 May 2024Moreirense2–1Estoril
- 13 Jan 2024Estoril1–3Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.92 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Estoril | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.64 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 9% 1/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 92% 11/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Estoril | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.70 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.00 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.39league 5.21
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+67%league 64%
Fouls29.2league 27.6
Penalties0.49league 0.48
Home wins49%league 35%
Estoril3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L30 Mar 25H · FC Porto1–24
- W15 May 23H · Arouca2–01
- W16 Jan 23H · Casa Pia2–01
Moreirense5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.8
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds1
- L4 Oct 25A · Nacional2–34
- W10 Aug 25H · Alverca2–13
- D4 Jan 25H · AVS1–13
- D11 Dec 23A · GIL Vicente1–13
- L14 Aug 23H · FC Porto1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril12 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Moreirense12 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
