Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Estoril had 6.1 days of rest, Rio Ave 6.9 and had to travel 300 km.
Away travel300 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Estoril49%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Estoril50%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Estoril49%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Estoril41%
Draw26%
Rio Ave33%
Estoril48%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 40
Team strength
Estoril
Rio Ave
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
21
AttackIn forecast
18
29
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilRio Ave
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.43
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
50%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.50
35%
On target shareContext
16%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
58%
Box shareContext
28%
4%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
—
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.50
BlocksContext
3.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
33%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
373
PassesContext
346
307
Accurate passesContext
281
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.50
FoulsContext
5.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
57%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.22
BlocksContext
3.70
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
55%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
440
PassesContext
370
365
Accurate passesContext
297
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.50
FoulsContext
9.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
DL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 30 · 1 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,909 km | 45 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
3Fernando Medrano
15Isma Sierra
4Ferro
2Ricard Sánchez
5A. Tsoungui
90Tiago Brito
7André Lacximicant
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
14J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
54G. Liavas
90Diogo Nascimento
44T. Nikitscher
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
30R. Galcik
9Tamble Monteiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rio Ave · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Estoril wins3 draws2 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 22 Mar 2026Estoril1–2Rio Ave
- 1 Nov 2025Rio Ave0–4Estoril
- 22 Feb 2025Estoril2–1Rio Ave
- 21 Sep 2024Rio Ave2–2Estoril
- 31 Jan 2024Rio Ave1–1Estoril
- 20 Aug 2023Estoril2–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Estoril | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.50 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Estoril | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 11.11 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 4.72
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+40%league 50%
Fouls28.3league 25.3
Penalties0.35league 0.33
Home wins55%league 33%
Estoril8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 5
- L26 Apr 26H · Famalicao0–10
- L14 Dec 25A · Famalicao0–41
- L21 Sep 25A · GIL Vicente0–22
- W26 Oct 24H · Arouca4–14
- L18 May 24A · Moreirense1–20
Rio Ave9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Dec 25A · Sporting CP0–41
- L10 Mar 25A · Famalicao0–12
- W30 Nov 24H · Moreirense3–23
- W17 Aug 24H · Farense1–00
- W11 Feb 24H · Casa Pia1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rio Ave2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
