Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel256 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Estrela—%
Draw—%
Arouca—%
Weather (Amadora)
Forecast from 20 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estrela and Arouca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Estrela
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EstrelaArouca
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
37
24
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaArouca
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.63
ShotsContext
10.50
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
68%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.88
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.13
BlocksContext
3.75
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
61%
Save rateContext
81%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
412
PassesContext
440
345
Accurate passesContext
372
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.75
FoulsContext
10.38
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
69%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.40
BlocksContext
4.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
63%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
384
PassesContext
439
317
Accurate passesContext
370
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
11.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
DWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km481 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel256 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 256 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 481 km | 3,074 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Last XI · not confirmed
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Arouca · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Estrela wins1 draws4 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.29
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 11 Oct 2026Arouca1–0Estrela
- 19 Apr 2026Arouca1–0Estrela
- 7 Dec 2025Estrela3–1Arouca
- 19 Apr 2025Arouca1–0Estrela
- 9 Dec 2024Estrela2–1Arouca
- 5 May 2024Arouca0–0Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Estrela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 6.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Estrela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estrela8 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
