Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,205 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Nacional—%
Draw—%
Rio Ave—%
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
Forecast from 20 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Nacional and Rio Ave. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Rio Ave
−0.92
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.73xG against1.65
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nacional
6
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row -
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
-
Alert
Rio Ave
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Rio Ave
−0.92
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.73xG against1.65
-
Alert
Rio Ave
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
Team strength
NacionalRio Ave
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
15
AttackIn forecast
18
13
DefenceIn forecast
21
5
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalRio Ave
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
63%
Scored inContext
38%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.00
ShotsContext
7.63
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
28%
On target shareContext
41%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
3.29
60%
Box shareContext
39%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
14.63
Shots allowedContext
16.38
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
3.14
BlocksContext
3.75
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
58%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
406
PassesContext
363
334
Accurate passesContext
300
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.13
FoulsContext
8.88
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.50
ShotsContext
7.90
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
28%
On target shareContext
39%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
3.78
60%
Box shareContext
42%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.25
14.20
Shots allowedContext
16.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.22
BlocksContext
4.30
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
63%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
390
PassesContext
362
317
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.20
FoulsContext
9.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
LLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,428 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
Rio Ave
LLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,205 km584 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,428 km | 584 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
88Deivison
31D. Dongmo
15C. Labidi
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
10Daniel Júnior
29N. Kader
Rio Ave
Last XI · not confirmed
32Vitor Hugo
17M. Vrousai
39Gustavo Mancha
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
54G. Liavas
79M. Patricio
7Diogo Bezerra
19M. Sellouki
80S. Clemmensen
11Jalen Blesa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Rio Ave
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Rio Ave · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | D 3–3 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Nacional wins2 draws2 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 11 Oct 2026Rio Ave3–2Nacional
- 25 Jan 2026Nacional4–0Rio Ave
- 17 Aug 2025Rio Ave1–1Nacional
- 10 May 2025Nacional3–3Rio Ave
- 29 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.13 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Nacional | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 9.88 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.01 | 3.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Nacional | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.20 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nacional8 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rio Ave8 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
