Estrela vs Benfica – 16 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 16 · 20:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–1Full time

Benfica

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 17). Benfica usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Estrela had 5.1 days of rest, Benfica ? and had to travel 8 km.

Away travel8 kmRest days5.1 · ?Matches / 14d1 · 0

Estrela10%

Draw18%

Benfica73%

Expected goals 0.71 – 2.30

Estrela9%

Draw17%

Benfica73%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.39

Estrela9%

Draw18%

Benfica73%

Expected goals 0.70 – 2.28

Estrela7%

Draw15%

Benfica79%

Expected goals 0.64 – 2.57

Estrela10%

Draw17%

Benfica73%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.40

Over 2.5 58% Both score 46% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho

Team strength

Estrela

Benfica

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

24 AttackIn forecast 81

27 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Benfica

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

30% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.60 ShotsContext 15.20

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

29% On target shareContext 36%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

55% Box shareContext 65%

4% ConversionContext 17%

2.90 OffsidesContext 3.00

13.80 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

4.33 BlocksContext 2.80

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

73% Save rateContext 79%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

291 PassesContext 449

215 Accurate passesContext 373

74% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.25

15.20 FoulsContext 11.80

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km31 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel8 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Aug	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	8 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	31 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

5-3-2

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

7Fábio Ronaldo 79A. Chernev 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick 55Sidny Lopes Cabral

11Jovane Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 99A. Marcus

13Alan Godoy 89J. Gastao

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

21A. Schjelderup 5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos 8F. Aursnes

14V. Pavlidis 9F. Ivanović

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home No home games yet this season.

Benfica · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Estrela wins0 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.75 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

2 Feb 2025Estrela2–3Benfica
24 Aug 2024Benfica1–0Estrela
29 Jan 2024Estrela1–4Benfica
19 Aug 2023Benfica2–0Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	—
Conceded per game	1.00	—
Match goals	2.00	—	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	0%	—	58%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	100%	—	46%
Clean sheets	0%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

	Estrela	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	—
Conceded per game	1.00	—
Match goals	2.00	—	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	0%	—	58%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	100%	—	46%
Clean sheets	0%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	—
Corners conceded	4.00	—
Match total	8.00	—	9.20
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	—
Cards
Cards	1.00	—
Opponent cards	4.00	—
Match total	5.00	—	4.60
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	—

	Estrela	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.90
Corners conceded	5.30	4.20
Match total	9.00	10.10	9.20
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	5.30	4.30	4.60
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.