Estrela vs Estoril – 10 Jan 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 10 · 16:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel15 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Estrela—%

Draw—%

Estoril—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Amadora)

Forecast from 26 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Estrela

Estoril

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

24 AttackIn forecast 21

27 DefenceIn forecast 29

24 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Estoril

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

75% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.63 ShotsContext 12.88

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 39%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

68% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 4%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.88 Shots allowedContext 13.75

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

2.13 BlocksContext 3.86

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

61% Save rateContext 61%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

412 PassesContext 402

345 Accurate passesContext 322

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.75 FoulsContext 10.88

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.10 ShotsContext 12.70

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

34% On target shareContext 38%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

69% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 5%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.40 BlocksContext 3.78

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 58%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

384 PassesContext 411

317 Accurate passesContext 333

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.69

11.00 FoulsContext 11.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,876 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel15 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 27 Dec	14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	15 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,876 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Estoril
Arouca	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Academico Viseu	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Rio Ave	D 3–3 A	L 0–2 H
SC Braga	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Nacional	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 A
Points	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game	2 of 18 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Estrela wins1 draws4 Estoril wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.67 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

19 Jan 2026Estrela0–5Estoril
11 Aug 2025Estoril1–1Estrela
17 May 2025Estoril4–0Estrela
5 Jan 2025Estrela2–4Estoril
4 Feb 2024Estoril1–0Estrela
25 Aug 2023Estrela2–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Estoril
Scored per game	1.75	0.50
Conceded per game	1.88	1.50
Match goals	3.63	2.00
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	38%
Over 3.5	63%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Estoril
Scored per game	1.60	0.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.60
Match goals	3.30	2.20
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	40%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	5.57
Corners conceded	4.71	4.14
Match total	9.57	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.50	1.38
Match total	4.88	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Estrela	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.00
Corners conceded	5.56	4.67
Match total	9.78	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.20	1.60
Match total	4.90	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.