Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 27 · 16:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,438 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Santa Clara—%
Draw—%
Estrela—%
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
Forecast from 12 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Santa Clara and Estrela. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Santa Clara
8
Unbeaten in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
Attack
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Estrela
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
Team strength
Santa ClaraEstrela
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
29
AttackIn forecast
24
53
DefenceIn forecast
27
73
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraEstrela
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
88%
Scored inContext
75%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.13
ShotsContext
12.63
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
27%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
60%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.60
7.75
Shots allowedContext
10.88
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
1.63
BlocksContext
2.13
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
83%
Save rateContext
61%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
379
PassesContext
412
300
Accurate passesContext
345
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.25
FoulsContext
10.75
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.10
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
24%
On target shareContext
34%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
59%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.10
BlocksContext
2.40
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
88%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
367
PassesContext
384
289
Accurate passesContext
317
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.50
FoulsContext
11.00
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,847 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Estrela
DWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,438 km543 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,438 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,847 km | 543 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Estrela
Last XI · not confirmed
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Estrela
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Estrela · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Arouca | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Academico Viseu | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Santa Clara wins2 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game0.25 – 0.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets75% · 75%
- 7 Feb 2026Estrela1–0Santa Clara
- 31 Aug 2025Santa Clara0–0Estrela
- 23 Feb 2025Estrela0–0Santa Clara
- 21 Sep 2024Santa Clara1–0Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Santa Clara | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 9.57 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 4.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Santa Clara | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.78 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Estrela8 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
