Estrela vs Guimaraes – 11 Apr 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 29 Sun, Apr 11 · 16:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel310 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Estrela—%

Draw—%

Guimaraes—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Amadora)

Forecast from 27 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Estrela

Guimaraes

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

24 AttackIn forecast 28

27 DefenceIn forecast 39

24 Form indexContext 13

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Guimaraes

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

75% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.63 ShotsContext 17.25

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

33% On target shareContext 23%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 10.63

68% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 4%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.43

10.88 Shots allowedContext 9.13

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.13 BlocksContext 3.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

61% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

412 PassesContext 449

345 Accurate passesContext 370

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.75 FoulsContext 15.63

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.89

70% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 16.60

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

34% On target shareContext 23%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

69% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 3%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.50 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

2.40 BlocksContext 2.63

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

63% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

384 PassesContext 448

317 Accurate passesContext 370

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.00 FoulsContext 14.70

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km15 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel310 km84 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	15 km	84 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Guimaraes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Guimaraes · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Guimaraes
Arouca	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Academico Viseu	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
SC Braga	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Nacional	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Sporting CP	D 2–2 H	L 2–3 A
Points	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Estrela wins1 draws5 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

14 Feb 2026Guimaraes2–1Estrela
14 Sep 2025Estrela0–2Guimaraes
16 Mar 2025Guimaraes2–0Estrela
27 Oct 2024Estrela2–2Guimaraes
21 Jan 2024Guimaraes3–0Estrela
13 Aug 2023Estrela0–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Guimaraes
Scored per game	1.75	0.63
Conceded per game	1.88	1.25
Match goals	3.63	1.88
Over 1.5	88%	50%
Over 2.5	75%	25%
Over 3.5	63%	13%
Both teams scored	75%	38%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Guimaraes
Scored per game	1.60	0.50
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	3.30	1.80
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	20%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	5.75
Corners conceded	4.71	4.00
Match total	9.57	9.75	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	2.50	2.50
Match total	4.88	5.25	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	Estrela	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.80
Corners conceded	5.56	3.80
Match total	9.78	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.90	5.20	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.