Estrela vs Santa Clara – 7 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 15:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 12th · 20 pts · 20 played WDLLD

1–0Full time

Santa Clara 16th · 17 pts · 20 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estrela were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Estrela had 6.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 7 and had to travel 1,438 km.

Away travel1,438 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Estrela40%

Draw29%

Santa Clara30%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.06

Estrela41%

Draw27%

Santa Clara32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Estrela40%

Draw29%

Santa Clara30%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.06

Estrela34%

Draw30%

Santa Clara37%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.19

Estrela41%

Draw28%

Santa Clara31%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.14

Over 2.5 41% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 13

Team strength

Estrela

Santa Clara

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

24 AttackIn forecast 29

27 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Santa Clara

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.85 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

55% Scored inContext 55%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

10.25 ShotsContext 11.25

3.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

33% On target shareContext 28%

5.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.45

48% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.94 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.70 Shots allowedContext 9.15

4.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.84

3.47 BlocksContext 2.38

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

65% Save rateContext 70%

47% PossessionIn forecast 47%

337 PassesContext 364

270 Accurate passesContext 293

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.25 FoulsContext 14.60

14.95 Fouls sufferedContext 14.65

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

60% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.80 ShotsContext 10.20

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13

35% On target shareContext 25%

4.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

47% Box shareContext 49%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.75

14.40 Shots allowedContext 9.10

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.67 BlocksContext 2.86

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

58% Save rateContext 62%

44% PossessionIn forecast 45%

337 PassesContext 332

269 Accurate passesContext 262

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.59 Team ratingContext 6.70

15.00 FoulsContext 16.30

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 3.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km62 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,438 km3,074 km in 14d

Schedule load22%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 22
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,438 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	62 km	3,074 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

83Otávio 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick

24B. Langa 39G. Doue 8Robinho 17Jefferson Encada

11Jovane Cabral 7Leandro Antonetti 99A. Marcus

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

64Paulo Victor 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira 77Gustavo Klismahn

10Gabriel Silva 29Wendel 70Vinícius Lopes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.00points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-4
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.70

Santa Clara · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 0.78
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Santa Clara
Alverca	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Benfica	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Estoril	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A
SC Braga	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 A
Famalicao	W 3–2 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Moreirense	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
FC Porto	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Arouca	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 H
Sporting CP	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 H
Nacional	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 A
Casa Pia	W 5–3 A	W 1–0 H
Rio Ave	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
AVS	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Tondela	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Guimaraes	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Points	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game	16 of 57 · 0.84 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Estrela wins2 draws1 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.33 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 100%

31 Aug 2025Santa Clara0–0Estrela
23 Feb 2025Estrela0–0Santa Clara
21 Sep 2024Santa Clara1–0Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.80
Conceded per game	1.85	1.25
Match goals	3.05	2.05	2.33
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	55%	35%	41%
Over 3.5	45%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	45%	45%
Games	20	20

	Estrela	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.80
Conceded per game	2.40	1.40
Match goals	3.60	2.20	2.33
Over 1.5	90%	40%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	41%
Over 3.5	70%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.65	4.44
Corners conceded	5.06	4.81
Match total	8.71	9.25	9.12
Over 8.5	47% 8/17	69% 11/16
Over 9.5	35% 6/17	50% 8/16
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	2.75	3.15
Opponent cards	2.70	3.05
Match total	5.45	6.20	5.29
Over 3.5	75% 15/20	85% 17/20
Over 4.5	70% 14/20	65% 13/20

	Estrela	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	2.88	4.40
Corners conceded	6.38	4.90
Match total	9.26	9.30	9.12
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	3.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.80
Match total	5.00	6.30	5.29
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.23league 4.94

Red cards0.15league 0.29

Cards 5+77%league 58%

Fouls26.3league 27.1

Penalties0.38league 0.47

Home wins54%league 40%

Estrela1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D9 Nov 25H · Nacional1–13

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D11 Jan 26A · Nacional3–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.